TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1
#6 GRITTINESS, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 2
#11 NOBLE DYNASTY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4
#3 BONUS MOVE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5
#2 MY SHERRONA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7
#10 PENTATHLON, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8
#4 THINK BIG, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9
#3 FINAL GAMBIT, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11
#10 POST TIME, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 12
#5 SHE'S GOT WILL, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 13
#7 TWOLATEBABYDOLL, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

Blue Madame (#4) and the now-scratched Tax Holiday have been working together on dirt down at Belmont. Both have strong European turf pedigrees and would be no surprise in this spot. It's probably a good sign that Irad Ortiz was named first call on the Brown runner over the Pletcher AE that now draws in. I just prefer a runner with experience coming out of a two-turn race at this level last month. Connect the Stars (#9) never had an opportunity to save ground in that July 5 race, traveling 2 to 3-wide throughout, which was generally an unsuccessful trip over the inner turf on July 4th weekend. Despite losing ground, she stayed on gamely through the late stages to persevere for second. It was a step forward from her sprint debut where she galloped out strongly. Any added distance should help this leggy filly, and I think she may have another step forward in her.

Fair Value:
#9 CONNECT THE STARS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

Zulu Kingdom (#7) figures to be a strong favorite in this National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes as he seeks to stay undefeated in four starts since returning as a 3-year-old. It's a little surprising to see him running in races like this rather than the Belmont Derby and Saratoga Derby after he already achieved a Grade 1 victory in the American Turf. However, Chad Brown seems convinced that he's a pure miler who will be better suited to focusing on this specific distance. He won over this same course and distance in the Manila last time, but he wasn't as visually impressive as his price suggested. He did race two- to three-wide throughout, which was not an ideal trip over a course that was favoring inside paths. I think he's a deserving favorite, but I didn't view him as unbeatable at a very short price. One reason why I believe the favorite could be vulnerable is the expected pace scenario. There is plenty of speed in this field, led by confirmed frontrunner Mi Bago (#1). This horse has one way to run, and that's going fast on the front end. Yet there are plenty of others who figure to be attending the pace, and even Zulu Kingdom tends to pull forward early in his races, so I wonder if a stern pace could detract from the favorite's finishing kick. Clever Again (#5) is another horse who should be vying for forward position, but he's still an intriguing contender as he makes the surface switch to turf for the first time in his career. This horse has strong European turf breeding on the bottom side of his pedigree and has worked very well over the Oklahoma turf course in the morning. He's a real threat if he can transfer his form to grass. My top pick is Luther (#2), who makes his second start in North America after finishing third in the Belmont Derby last time out. He got within striking distance in upper stretch and just seemed to flatten out in the final furlong, a sign that this turnback in distance may suit him. He also struggled with a longer distance in the Prix du Jockey Club two back, but he ran the best race of his career going a mile in the Group 1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains in May. He drew a difficult outside post position that day and still finished well for fourth after a wide trip. I don't mind the rider switch to Joel Rosario, an expert at launching late rallies on turf.

Fair Value:
#2 LUTHER, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don't really want the likely favorites in this $30k maiden claimer for state-breds. Omaha Pistol (#2) has been pretty disappointing since the claim by Linda Rice. He ran a race that would beat this field in his final start for Jeremiah Englehart, but he's lacked finish in both starts since then. He's probably the one to beat, but I don't trust him. I also don't want Army Proud (#7), who figures to attract support merely due to connections. He ran fine at this level last time, but it wasn't exactly a performance that makes him a formidable favorite in this spot. My top pick is Sanzio (#12), who drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. I know it looks like his form has tailed off, but he's found himself in some very tough maiden races recently, particularly two back in the slop here at the Spa. He showed some ability back in April and May, and now he's just dropping down to the level at which he's always belonged. He gets blinkers and Lasix, and should be a square price for connections that don’t take money here.

Fair Value:
#12 SANZIO, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

If this race stays on grass, the entry is obviously going to be a handful. While Shefflin (#1) isn't impossible making his second start off the claim for Mike Maker and turning back to an appropriate distance, I do prefer the more logical halfChess Master (#1A). This 9-year-old appears to be back in solid form, and he just loves to win races, especially when he's entered in turf sprints. He's back at the same level for which he won last time while protected. I don't mind that he's in for the tag here, since I don't think the connections will be too upset to lose a 9-year-old on this circuit. Among the horses who finished behind him last time, Fluid Situation (#6) might be able to do a little better here. He was never winning that last race, but he did encounter some minor traffic in the lane. It was a return to form for a horse who has lacked consistency during his career. My top pick is Chiringo (#10), who makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. Like so many of the horses she's taken from Churchill, she just gave him a race at that venue last time, intentionally racing him over his head to satisfy the claiming rules. She's now dropping him to a logical level, and I'm pretty intrigued by the return to turf. This horse started out his career as a turf horse with George Weaver before later running some faster speed figures on other surfaces. Yet he probably just improved through natural maturity, and I like him getting back to the surface that he was initially intended to handle.

Fair Value:
#10 CHIRINGO, at 7-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 6

I don't have much faith in the favorites in this seemingly wide open state-bred maiden event, and I didn't want to default to the two most obvious first time starters. Tuthilltown (#10) sold for $120k after working a furlong in 10 1/5 at Fasig-Tipton. She didn't look like anything special to me in that July 12 drill, and Rudy Brisset tends to do better with second time starters. Grazie (#9) sold for a hefty sum following a gallop at Fasig-Tipton, but she's bred to go longer than this, and could take money by default for popular connections. I'm more intrigued by a first time starter at a much bigger price. Cara's Dreamchaser (#11) goes out for Mitch Friedman, who can occasionally win on debut. Her worktab seems solid enough for the level, and I liked the way she was plugging away to minor encouragement in that most recent July 25 drill. This female family has produced several runners who have been proficient on both dirt and turf.

Fair Value:
#11 CARA'S DREAMCHASER, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

This John Morrissey drew a surprisingly large field of 13 runners, but the two likely favorites clearly have the best résumés. Whatchatalkinabout (#9) is a Grade 3 winner dropping in class into this New York-bred stakes, and Bank Frenzy (#2) has won 5 of his last 6 including several state-bred stakes events over the course of his career. I prefer the Wesley Ward runner, who will be awfully tough for this field to handle if repeating the 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that 8-length allowance victory two back. He didn't run quite as fast when narrowly edging clear to win the John Nerud last time, and he does have to prove that he can stretch his speed over this 7-furlong distance. Bank Frenzy will also be attempting to conquer this distance for the first time. He's achieved most of his stakes success going a mile, and he may have to launch his rally from farther back this time. I see a couple of intriguing alternatives to consider, both drawn towards the outside of the starting gate. One of those is Doc Sullivan (#12), who has been beaten by a few of these rivals recently. However, he is returning from a brief freshening, switching into the barn of John Ortiz. The new conditioner doesn't have great statistics off trainer switches, but he has had success at Saratoga in recent seasons. Doc Sullivan can be a tricky horse to ride, often struggling with his lead changes or trying to lug in, so I'll be interested to see if Joel Rosario can work out a better trip from this outside draw. My top pick is Light Man (#13), drawn in the widest slot. I'm not worried about the post since he possesses very good tactical speed, and the draw should give Kendrick Carmouche plenty of options for the long run down the backstretch. This gelding spent a long time on the sidelines early in his career, but he steadily improved over the course of last season. He's remarkably consistent, only finishing off the board once in his career last November. He was too aggressively ridden that day, fading after dueling in a fast pace. He rebounded in his return last time, chasing home the inconsistent but occasionally brilliant Baby Yoda. His last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 113 and 117 aren't that far off the favorites, and I can project some improvement in his second start off a layoff. He figures to be a fair price in a race with so many options.

Fair Value:
#13 LIGHT MAN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 10

This appears to be the most interesting off the turf race of the day, with 8 remaining runners including 3 MTOs. Among those entered for dirt Soundbite (#1A) obviously has the best credentials. She ran a race against starter allowance foes two back at Aqueduct that would make her awfully tough for this field to beat. She even held her own against a tougher allowance optional claiming field when last seen in April. Yet I never like when horses go to the sidelines while they're in top form, and now she's returning for a $40k tag. As this race currently stands after scratches, she is drawn in post 8, which has had no success from the Wilson chute, going 0 for 74 coming into this week. The horse drawn right to her inside Always Practical (#13) also has some credentials to be effective in a spot like this, dropping out of a $100k claimer. Though that wasn't the strongest race for the level, and she has to prove she can handle added distance. Linda Rice does have good statistics with off-the-turf stretch-outs. Among those in the main body of the field, I do think there are a couple of intriguing runners entered for turf that stay in. La Grotte (#8) has primarily raced against cheaper company in her dirt races, but she did show improvement first off the claim for Ray Handal on turf last time. It's unclear if she's actually better on turf or if she just improved for the new barn. Her workouts since that race suggest that she may be in good form right now, and she figures to be a price. My top pick is Broadway Lights (#4), who drew best of the main contenders. She's exiting that same 6-furlong turf race where she also showed some improvement first off the claim for Mike Maker. She handled dirt routes early in her career, running especially well when second to the talented Book'em during her 2-year-old season. She tailed off after that, but she has a right to turn things around for the new barn. Maker specializes with these types. He is 12 for 55 (22%, $2.55 ROI) in off the turf routes at Saratoga over 5 years, and 8 for 31 (26%, $2.87 ROI) with non-maidens within that sample.

Fair Value:
#4 BROADWAY LIGHTS, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Corruption (#6) in this high-priced allowance/optional-claimer. I had been hoping to bet this horse in a tougher spot where he'd be a more enticing price, but his connections opted out of running in the Bowling Green, and then were forced to scratch from the United Nations due to a quarantine in Mark Casse's barn. He's since gotten back on the worktab, looking no worse for the missed time. His form through the early part of this year has been excellent, as he has improved with experience and added distance. He ran the classy Far Bridge to a neck decision in the Pan American, and then cut back for his next couple of starts. The nine furlongs of the Grade 1 Manhattan was probably short of his best distance, but he ran deceptively well chasing on the outside after getting steadied out of position at the start. He figures to get a more comfortable trip pressing the pace here, and I believe stretching back out around three turns will bring out his best. The only other horse who interests me a bit is Summer Cause (#4), especially for use underneath my top pick. He is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in this field who has spent the majority of his career on the dirt. However, he always had turf in his pedigree and proved that he could make the transition to this surface when he won at Tampa in April. He made a wide, sustained run into the lane, looking very much like a horse who wouldn't mind some additional distance. He failed to step forward last time when moved into stakes company at Laurel, but he got shuffled back early in a race that didn't feature any pace. He can be used more aggressively this time by Joel Rosario, and I believe he'll get the distance without issue.

Fair Value:
#6 CORRUPTION, at 1-1 or greater

RACE 5

Likely favorite Fiddling Felix (#6) earned a field-best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure when he finally dropped in for a tag last time, competing for one-fifth of today's price tag. Despite running the best race of his career, he still came up short in an atypically fast race for the $20k level. He's now moving up off the claim for Fernando Abreu, who has had more success claiming horses out of town than at NYRA. Chad Brown sends out a pair, of which I slightly prefer second time starter Noguchi (#2), who switches surfaces after debuting on turf. He actually has more of a dirt pedigree, being a half-brother to Grade 1-placed dirt horse Following Sea. He's trained reasonably well on dirt, and seems versatile. My top pick is Fleeting Free (#4), who returns from a brief layoff switching into the barn of Melanie Giddings. This same trainer switch worked like a charm for Accelerated News last Friday, and there are some things to like about this horse if looking beyond his disappointing debut race. First of all, that was a turf event, and he had no chance after a poor start. This gelding had shown some talent working in Saratoga last summer, particularly in a gate drill where he broke slowly and them zoomed past workmates. He's obviously had some issues getting to the races, but he's reportedly working well once again, and we've seen these connections bring out the best in horses at Saratoga before.

Fair Value:
#4 FLEETING FREE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

This race will obviously get much tougher for all of those drawn in the main body if Keto Drink (#11) gets in off the AE list. This filly faced what appeared to be a tougher field than this one on debut and ran quite well, closing determinedly for third after getting bumped at the start and dropping far back in the early stages. The outside post positions aren't that much of a disadvantage going this distance, and she would be tough if she could break better this time. Among the firsters drawn inside of her, Santina (#1) figures to take money for Wesley Ward. Her turf workout on July 14 was pretty good, but I don't love firsters breaking from the rail at this distance and shockingly Ward is 0 for 17 debuting on turf at Saratoga over the last 5 years. Mackinac (#2) is by excellent turf and debut influence Twirling Candy. I like the visual of a few of her works in Kentucky and Rusty Arnold can have one ready to fire first time out. I just prefer a runner with experience. Street Sue (#9) has made two prior starts on dirt at Aqueduct, showing good speed before fading each time. While her pedigree isn't overwhelmingly turf-oriented, I have seen a few of the Authentics do better on turf, and there is pedigree going deeper into her female family. Her dam is a half-sister to 16-time winner and turf specialist High Noon Rider. I really liked her turf workout on July 20, where she showed good speed while always racing eagerly and into the bridle. Her experience should give her an edge, and Chris Elliott has gotten some very live mounts for this barn in the last year.

Fair Value:
#9 STREET SUE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

I wasn't originally planning to go against the favorites in this Johnstone, but the scratches have completely altered the pace scenario of this race. Among the four who came out, all were potential speeds, leaving very little early pace signed on. That could work against Sterling Silver (#8), who does have some versatility to her but still benefit from a little more pace than she's going to get here, especially in her sprint races. I still believe she's the horse to beat, and I like her cutting back in distance. Her chances of getting a successful trip have just significantly declined given the altered complexion of this field. Main rival My Mane Squeeze (#5) has a bit more tactical speed than that rival, which should put her in a good stalking position. Yet I still don't feel comfortable upgrading her since I have some concerns about her current form. She looked like a filly who was ready to make a splash in graded stakes after her return in the Madison, but she's instead stepped backwards in two subsequent starts. I'm now going in a different direction with Tricky Temper (#11). I know it looks like she's completely off form, but this is a filly who has woken up in Saratoga before. She put forth back-to-back solid efforts in victory here last summer, including a stakes win in the Union Avenue. This is a tougher spot than that one, and she's coming off one of the worst performances of her career. However, she probably needed that last race off the layoff, and she was ridden like it was merely a prep by Joel Rosario, who never asked her for much. She's since improved markedly in her workouts, and appears to be sitting on a better effort. She's drawn well outside and looks like the potential controlling speed.

Fair Value:
#11 TRICKY TEMPER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

I'm not way against likely favorite Kyla's Kause (#2), who returns from a layoff after running competitive speed figures during her 2-year-old season. The only big problem is the drop in class, since she seemingly ran well enough last year to get another chance at the maiden special weight level. Yet Tom Morley is immediately dropping in for $50k, as if he's not expecting her to build on that juvenile form. She could still beat this field even if she returns at the same level, but I don't want to bet on that prospect at a short price. Fifi La Fume (#5) was a horse that I liked quite a bit last time after she had shown some turf ability going too far in June. The cutback seemed to help her, but she ran into a well-meant first time starter and just missed second after encountering some traffic on the turn. She's getting a pretty big rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, but trainer Rudy Rodriguez is just 2 for his last 156 turf starters. I'm instead going to the new face on this surface. Hattie Carroll (#9) showed some ability in the first couple of starts last winter, flashing speed in her dirt debut before staying on for fourth behind the talented Naive Melody second time out. She didn't fare well when she dropped in for a tag in January, but something may have gone wrong since she was off for months after that. She's now returning at a similar level switching to turf, and she has plenty of pedigree for this surface. Flameaway is a 14% turf sprint sire, her dam won on turf, and her second dam was Grade 3-placed on this surface. John Kimmel has done well with first time turfers in the past, and she gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche.

Fair Value:
#9 HATTIE CARROLL, at 6-1 or greater