TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 7

This first-level allowance is a little less appealing after the scratch of the favorite, but it's still a highly competitive affair in which every horse has a chance. The pace is likely to be set by Rudy's remaining runner Daufuskie Island (#5), who rejoins the Rodriguez stable after getting claimed back for $50k last time. He had tailed off in this barn early last year, but got back on track recently for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He has to clear the inside speed What's Up Bro (#1), but his sharp works leading into this race suggest that he's going to get an aggressive ride. Daufuskie Island is a threat to take them all the way. My top pick is War Stride (#6), who drew the far outside post. This 5-year-old has to improve slightly to take down the favorites here, but he does appear to be in the best form of his career right now. Some might downgrade his performance two back since it came against $25k claimers, but that field was every bit as tough as this one and he put in a strong effort to just miss after making an early move into contention. He didn't perform quite as well last time, but he was unwisely rated at the start and was never in position to strike. I expect him to get a more decisive ride with Manny Franco taking over again, and this post should be conducive to a stalking trip.

Fair Value:
#6 WAR STRIDE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8

Turf season begins in New York on Wednesday, and though there are only two turf races carded, the finale offers plenty of wagering appeal. I don't want to settle for a short price on Makeyourmoment (#3), who has obviously earned prior turf speed figures that make him one of the contenders. However, I can't say that any of those performances make him a particularly formidable favorite. He's also coming off a layoff, adding more uncertainty to the mix. Doomed (#12) is another layoff runner who could take some money after making one start at Saratoga last summer. He didn't get the smoothest trip, receiving multiple bumps in upper stretch before flattening out. He now returns going longer with Lasix added. It doesn't hurt to pick up Dylan Davis, but he will have to overcome a difficult post position. Among the likely short prices, Ragazzo d'Oro (#1) is most appealing. He drew the rail so he figures to save more ground than he did in either start at Tampa Bay Downs. He made a wide run after a poor start on debut, and understandably flattened out. Then last time he was commencing a wide rally on the far turn, but got carried out by a bolting rival, essentially getting eliminated from the race. He's better than both of those results, and now picks up Javier Castellano. One of the most intriguing aspects of these early season turf races is projecting improvement for those trying this surface for the first time. The most attractive of those based on pedigree is Dead Aim (#10), who is out of 3-time turf winner My Cara Mia, who has already produced 3 turf-winning progeny. He hasn't shown much in either dirt start, but he is receiving a jockey upgrade to Ruben Silvera as he gets on what is likely to be his preferred surface. My top pick is Cada Dia Mejor (#7). He lacks the obvious turf pedigree of some others in this field, but he is by underrated turf influence Big Brown, who gets 11% winners from turf route starters. There isn't much turf breeding on the dam's side, but this gelding nevertheless strikes me as one who will take to this surface. He put forth by far his best dirt effort over a sloppy, sealed track on debut, which can sometimes suit horses with turf inclination. He's a leggy horse with good suspension to his stride, and those types generally perform better on grass. He goes out for connections that have enjoyed a productive last few months, and picks up an aggressive rider in a race that features a very murky pace scenario.

Fair Value:
#7 CADA DIA MEJOR, at 9-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

I have trouble settling for short prices on either likely favorite in this $16k beaten claimer. Kara Para (#1) andWhistler's Style (#3) are both dropping out of a much tougher $35k conditioned claimer last time where each was well beaten by the superior Mursal. The class relief obviously makes them dangerous, but neither one is in particularly strong form. I suppose Whistler's Style is a little more trustworthy since her speed figures have generally been consistent, if dropping off slightly. She's hard to endorse as a win candidate given her lack of early speed, especially in a race that doesn't feature much pace. Kara Para once would have been a heavy favorite against a group like this, but she just hasn't been quite the same since returning from a layoff earlier in the winter. She gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis but needs to show a little more. My top pick is the likely speed La Grotte (#5). The TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts her on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. I tried this mare when she stretched out last time, and she got leg-weary after contesting a pretty honest early pace. I doubt they'll be moving that quickly up front this time with no one to pressure her. This barn has already pulled some significant upsets on the circuit, and I still believe that this mare is better suited to route distances even though she hasn't yet won going this far.

Fair Value:
#5 LA GROTTE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

I suppose Omaha Pistol (#3) may beat this field if he merely repeats his last effort at the maiden special weight level. He got a little keen when rated behind the leaders early and ultimately stayed on well for fourth behind some superior rivals. The race was flattered when third-place Dear Chairman came back to dominate a maiden special weight field next time. This gelding never really panned out after running well on debut last summer at Saratoga, but now he's just dropping down to the right level. He is a horse who wants to be forward and there should be competition for the front end from Consider It Done (#1) and Allofasuddenlee (#7). Both of those rivals are win candidates, but Consider It Done has to prove he can finish stronger off the claim for Linda Rice, and Allofasuddenlee lacks the upside of some others in here. My top pick is second time starter Skippy Town (#6), who ships in from Mahoning Valley by way of Keeneland. This horse debuted against open company for different connections, and was never a serious factor despite checking in third. He got a decent 73 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the race, but will need to improve to factor here. I do think he can bridge that gap with routine improvement, especially for a horse who has seemingly worked better than he ran on debut. He's switching into the barn of Adam Rice, who ships him to New York for his second start. Rice is 11 for 34 (32%, $4.21 ROI) with all starters on the NYRA circuit over the last 5 years, so you have to respect everything his barn sends out here.

Fair Value:
#6 SKIPPY TOWN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

Unlimitedpotential (#4) looks like the horse to beat as he turns back in distance. Yet the cutback all the way to 6 furlongs has to be a minor concern for a horse that could be a fairly short price. He's never tried a distance this short in his career, and has generally been most effective between 7 furlongs and a mile. He definitely has the tactical speed to be effective going shorter, but it's still uncharted territory. He ran into an awfully tough rival in Giroovin last time and gets some minor class relief here. His main rival based on form is Skylander (#2), but he's a little tough to trust getting claimed away from the Rick Dutrow barn. I don't love that Dutrow dropped him in for a $32k tag last time despite possessing form to suggest he might be worth more than that. Burninhunkoflove (#6) is the interesting new face from out of town. He steps up in class off two victories against weaker at Fair Grounds, but he earned competitive speed figures. It appears that Joe Sharp has brought a live string of runners to New York for the spring, so I don't want to discount him. My top pick is the speedy For Some Reason (#1), who is moving up slightly in class out of a $25k claimer. Yet at least he took a step in the right direction in that spot after he was eased at a similar level to this two back. Something appeared to go awry that day, as he was off for 3 months thereafter. He had a right to need that return last time with just two workouts under his belt during the time away. I like that he's now moving up into a protected spot, and he should play out as the main speed from this rail draw. Six furlongs is his best distance, and his top speed figures are nearly on par with those of the favorites.

Fair Value:
#1 FOR SOME REASON, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

This N1X allowance for the NY-bred fillies came up pretty strong for a race at this level, featuring a pair of fillies dropping out of open company races who could vie for favoritism. She's Our Tiz (#8) is arguably the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff. She held her won in two open company stakes races last year, hardly disgraced against the talented Totally Justified in the P. G. Johnson before staying on for third when last seen in the Chelsey Flower. She appeared to disengage on the far turn of that last start before staying on late. My biggest concern with her is the turnback in distance. While she did win her debut at this trip, she appeared to improve going longer later in the year. I much prefer her main rival Sinead (#11), who also drops out of open company races. Yet at least she has recent form, having competed through the winter at Gulfstream. She ran deceptively well in the Ladies Turf Sprint two back, staying on well to be beaten less than 2 lengths despite angling wide into the lane. She then got a silly trip last time, rank and steadying early before getting taken up when she should have been building momentum approaching the quarter pole. I like her getting back to this 6-furlong distance over which she broke her maiden last year, and she's reunited with Jose Lezcano. The others that I would consider, primarily underneath, are bigger prices. Slightly Busy (#12) was no match for She's Our Tiz when they debuted in the same race last July. Yet she ran better than it looks in her subsequent start on dirt, surviving a very fast pace to win going a mile. She has more ability than her speed figures suggest, and she's switching into the barn of Amelia Green plenty of upside. The other price horse that I definitely want to use is Honorable Becky (#5). Her dirt form is inferior to this group, but at least she's been improving over her last couple of starts, finally coming into her own as a closing sprinter. Yet the key point with her is that she has plenty of turf pedigree. Honor A. P. has been winning with 14% of his turf starters in a small sample, and the dam only ran on turf, and her second dam was a G3 stakes winner on grass. She should appreciate the surface switch and figures to get dismissed at a huge price.

Fair Value:
#11 SINEAD, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8

Practical Romance (#10) figures to attract support as she ships in to New York to face state-breds for the first time after making her debut against open company at Fair Grounds. She ran pretty well to finish third against that field in Louisiana, but she also got a perfect trip. Breaking from the inside post, she got right over the rail and rode the pocket every step of the way. It was a merry-go-round affair where the leaders dominated, and she just stayed on at one pace behind them. Now she's drawn in an outside post, so she may have to use a little more early speed to get over and save ground. Brittany Russell is just 3 for 26 (12%, $1.30 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years, and this filly might need a slight step forward to beat this group. Main rival Gallant Greta (#2) is a little more appealing to me. It might appear that her recent form has really tailed off, as she has been disappointing at short prices in each of her last two dirt starts. Yet her dirt debut isn't quite as strong as it appears, since she stayed inside throughout riding a rail bias. She significantly improved when switched to turf last year, and ran better than it looks in both grass starts. She encountered some traffic before staying on for third in August, and then made the first move in a race that ultimately fell apart in September. She's now getting back on the right surface for a dangerous barn. I'm taking a shot against this pair with On a Summer Day (#1), who returns from a layoff to make her 3-year-old debut. Her form during her juvenile season was pretty solid for a New York-bred filly. She almost wired a field in her turf debut at Delaware before running a good third at 23-1 when she tried this state-bred level in September. She then got a wide trip two weeks later, and was compromised by setting a fast pace when she stepped up against open company to conclude her turf season. She's been given the winter off, and now returns for the underrated John Pregman barn. He hasn't made this move often, but Pregman is 3 for 5 (60%, $5.96 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in turf routes over the last 5 years. This filly gets Lasix and shows a tab of improving workouts for her 3-year-old debut.

Fair Value:
#1 ON A SUMMER DAY, at 6-1 or greater