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Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 10 PM (Dec 12)
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by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 3 - 2 - 1A/1
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 1 - 11
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 9: 4 - 7 - 2 - 11
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Street Jam (#2) is obviously the horse to beat in this first of two consecutive N3L $16k claimers. She’s racing off the claim for Linda Rice, who has taken her for the second time. She first claimed this filly for $62,500 last year, then lost her off a layoff for $35k. She then dipped back in to claim her next time for $25k, and now drops her again to $16k. It seems like a curious move for a mare that doesn’t appear to be in the best form at the moment. She was facing a tougher field last time, and did run better when in Rice’s care two back. She’s just tough to trust given the trajectory. I think there are a couple of interesting alternatives. One of those is Mysaria (#4), who gets needed class relief. She had been racing against state-bred allowance competition through the summer before getting a break. She was mildly against a rail bias when last seen on Aug. 2, but her prior speed figures put her squarely in the mix against this field. She’s returning from a layoff for Tim Hills and has run well over this track in the past. My top pick is Book of Wisdom (#7). She finished just behind likely favorite Street Jam when they met on Nov. 9, but that race was dominated on the front end and she never had a chance to get involved after dropping so far back from the rail. She ran better in her prior start when staying on well along the inside into the lane before stalling in traffic late. I think she’s subtly improved in the latter portion of her 3-year-old season. She’s another who gets slight class relief, and she should benefit from drawing outside this time.
Fair Value:
#7 BOOK OF WISDOM, at 6-1 or greater
#4 MYSARIA, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 3
At first glance it looks pretty tough to go against expected heavy favorite Spring Magic (#7), who just towers over this field based on speed figures, class, and form. I’m just always a little skeptical of favorites that look too good, especially at these lower claiming levels. Tom Morley is not the kind of trainer to just automatically drop a horse off the claim, especially a mare like this who has seemingly been in good form. Therefore this placement at the $16k level, where she is likely to change hands again, seems like a minor red flag. It’s also worth pointing out that the Morley barn has been pretty cold lately, struggling to get to the winner’s circle over the last several months on this circuit. There are enough questions for me to look elsewhere. The best alternative that I can come up with is Starry Midnight (#2), who has twice been beaten by the favorite this fall. However, she actually ran very well just behind that foe on Oct. 12, closing in a race that lacked much pace. She was then overmatched against allowance company before dropping back down on Nov. 9. I didn’t love the ride she got that day, as her rider seemed to overcommit to the rail path. She rebounded with a better performance against slightly softer company at Finger Lakes last time, and should fit well at this $16k level. I also don’t mind her stretching back out to a mile, since she’s run some of her best races routing on dirt.
Fair Value:
#2 STARRY MIDNIGHT, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
This $35k conditioned claimer is one of the toughest races on the card because nearly every horse is coming in from a different direction. The two shippers Merit (#1) and Normandy Hero (#5) are among the toughest to read. The former makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice after beating a weaker field at Keeneland last time out. He finally got back to the winner’s circle after a series of disappointments, but I’m not convinced that this horse really wants to go a mile against this level. Those stamina concerns are even greater for Normandy Hero, who looks like a pure sprinter. He did earn a nice speed figure at Keeneland two back, but he was pretty disappointing off the claim for Jamie Ness last time. It doesn’t seem like a good sign that he’s immediately being offered for a tag, since Ness tends to protect the horses he wants to keep. Chileno (#6) is another runner that is tough to trust after he put in such a disappointing effort as the odds-on favorite at this level last time. Yet it’s impossible to ignore that he’s been claimed by Brad Cox, who has had plenty of success with these types in recent months. His better efforts will beat this field, if he can get back to them, but I’m concerned that he won’t be much of a price. O P Firecracker (#3) seems more trustworthy. He’s seen better days, but at least his recent form is consistent, and he appears to fit well at this class level after trying tougher company in some prior starts. The one concern with him is his lack of early speed, since there isn’t much pace in this race. My top pick is Wake Surf (#7), and I’m hoping Eric Cancel can deliver a more aggressive ride than he’s gotten recently. He showed earlier in this career that he has the tactical speed to stalk the pace, and he seems like a runner who fares best when he can get involved early. He’s never won on the dirt, but he’s run some nice speed figures on this surface, and all of those starts have come against tougher company than this. He’s getting significant class relief as he returns on short rest, and his lackluster recent results could ensure a fair price.
Fair Value:
#7 WAFE SURF, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
You can really make a case for just about everyone in this highly competitive allowance optional claimer. Tricky Temper (#8) probably possesses the best overall form, having won a New York-bred stakes at Saratoga this summer. However, she failed to show up in the Prioress and was very disappointing when she returned two months later in the Iroquois, fading to last as the favorite. She really isn’t getting much class relief in this spot and needs to bounce back if she’s to beat this group. Everyoneloveslinda (#2) seems a little more trustworthy at comparable odds. She’s been remarkably consistent on dirt since getting claimed by Linda Rice earlier this year. She won this condition in May, and then stepped up to race competitively against tougher company over the summer at Saratoga. She was a little disappointing last time at Parx, but that was a tough race for the level won by the razor sharp Irish Maxima. She has a versatile running style and fits well here. There is plenty of pace in this race, which could be a problem for Fancy Azteca (#3), who goes out for the red-hot Rick Dutrow barn. Between the two Dutrow runners, I prefer Proud Foot (#4), who got a needed freshening after her form tailed off this summer in Kentucky. She was running competitive races at this level last winter and spring, and will be tough if she can bound back to that form for a barn that’s sending out nothing but live runners. My top pick is I’m Buzzy (#5). The TimeformUS Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace, and this mare will appreciate that kind of setup. Her ceiling may not be as high as some others, but she’s pretty consistent and ahs run well at this level in the past. I can also make excuses for most her recent underwhelming efforts. She’s been asked to go a mile three times in a row, and that’s just slightly too far for her. She’s also been wide against rail biases in 3 of her last 4 starts, making her look worse than she is. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Charlton Baker, and might get somewhat overlooked in this wide open affair.
Fair Value:
#5 I'M BUZZY, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 6
Paddington (#3) is clearly the class of this field as he drops out of first-level allowance races into this conditioned claimer. He looked so full of promise when he made his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, winning by over 8 lengths two summers ago. However, he has failed to win again in 6 subsequent starts while producing highly inconsistent form. He’s only made three racetrack appearances in 2024 and he appears to be tailing off once again, failing to make an impact when last seen in September. Rice is now dropping him down to a level at which he should be competitive, but I’m always reticent to take short prices on horses like this. The Jamie Ness entry looks like his biggest rival, though only one half of the pair will participate with apprentice Francisco Martinez named on both runners. Arrow Speed (#1A) looks to be the slightly stronger candidate, having won 4 of his last 7 starts including two in a row against starter allowance competition. However, I don’t love that he’s dropping back in for a tag. Jamie Ness has had success on the NYRA circuit recent, but he is just 1 for 27 (4%, $0.32 ROI) with horses racing for a claiming tag at NYRA over 5 years. That same statistic applies to entrymate Melt With You (#1), who is also in good form but has faced slightly weaker company recently. Prove Worthy (#2) has the back class to be competitive in a spot like this, but he’s seeking to recapture his best form after taking a steep drop in class at Saratoga this summer. This deep closer often leaves himself too much ground to make up, but he was staying on well at this level last time and shouldn’t mind this stretch-out in distance. My top pick is Indianquest (#9). He may look slightly overmatched at first glance, but this gelding did show potential early in his career, winning his first couple of starts over a mile. His connections subsequently embarked on a turf experiment that just didn’t work out, and he hasn’t quite regained his best form since coming back to dirt. However, he had a right to need that return from a layoff in October when only beaten a length by former stablemate Prove Worthy. He was claimed out of that spot by low-profile trainer Emron Ibrahim and cut all the way back to 6 1/2 furlongs last time. This long-striding son of Nyquist wants no part of a sprint distance, and he was predictably outrun before staying on late. That race probably served as a means to an end, as he was gradually making up ground across the wire and galloped out with purpose ahead of the entire field. Now he stretches out to a distance that should suit him, and I’m expecting a much better effort at a square price.
Fair Value:
#9 INDIANQUEST, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
Speightful Lily (#8) returns from a layoff with much to prove. She started off her career in such promising fashion, winning her debut by over 14 lengths with a strong 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she subsequently lost her first attempt against winners at a very short price. She then returned at Saratoga to beat a weaker N1X field, but did so with the help of a speed-favoring track. She stepped up to this level last time in an off the turf race, and raced awkwardly before bearing out on the turn. She now returns from another layoff looking to get back on track, and this is the toughest field she’s faced. I want others. Both fillies who finished directly behind Brown Suga Babe in the Nov. 7 race at this level make sense. Miss Lao (#1) maintained the strong form she displayed off the claim for Dennis Lalman, running even better checking in second at this level last time. She was wide throughout but was with the flow of the race. That was not the case for Maggy’s Palace (#2), who was shuffled back along the inside early, and had far too much ground to make up approaching the quarter pole. She did finish strongly, and should benefit from a strong pace this time. My top pick is Harlan’s Bond (#6), who makes her second start off a layoff. She’s had plenty of chances at this level without breaking through, but her last effort was a step in the right direction. She got a pretty good trip, and was finishing well through the lane to just miss getting up for second. I like her stretching back out to this 7-furlong distance at which she ran her career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure in April. That form gives her a real chance here, and she seems like a candidate to step forward second off the layoff. She had previously been highly competitive against True Empress, who might be one of the favorites in this spot. Harlan’s Bond figures to be the right price, and may be landing in a spot that isn’t quite as tough as it appears at first glance.
Fair Value:
#6 HARLAN'S BOND, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
If Mama’s Gold (#7) repeats his Empire Classic effort, everyone else in this field is competing for second. This colt had proven before that he can pop up with a huge performance every now and then, and he did just that last time, beating a strong field decisively at odds of 40-1. That 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure was a new top for him, and he achieved it at today’s conditions. He does seem to be best around two turns, and he obviously loves this Aqueduct surface. The one major knock against him is that he hasn’t really put those big efforts back to back, so it is fair to be concerned about his potential for regression. Donegal Surges (#1) didn’t run nearly as well as Mama’s Gold in the Empire Classic, but he had beaten that foe two back. He seems to appreciate this distance, and drew well towards the inside. There isn’t anything particularly interesting about him at a short price, but he does seem like a legitimate contender. Yo Daddy (#3) is another that appears to fit this race well. A couple of turf experiments in stakes company didn’t work out this summer and fall, but he’s otherwise been in great form on the dirt, and proved that he can handle the 9 furlongs last time. He didn’t even get an ideal trip that day, making an early move and holding on late. He can be tricky to ride at times, but he’s talented enough to compete with these. My top pick is Summer Cause (#2), who takes another shot at this level after running deceptively well in a smaller field last time. He got involved in a three-way early duel through quick fractions, put away both pace rival, and battled on gamely late when passed by the two closers. The raw time may not be impressive, but he got a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, incorporating a significant pace upgrade. He looked like a runner that was starting to figure things out at Monmouth two back, his first start as a new gelding. He clearly relishes this distance, and he doesn’t seem like a horse that necessarily needs the lead to be effective.
Fair Value:
#2 SUMMER CAUSE, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1A
Race 6: 2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 7 - 8 - 1 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I’m not trying to beat second time starter My Sherrona (#4), who ran quite well to be second on debut last month. She got a wide trip chasing the pace and issued a serious challenge to eventual winner Beauty Reigns in mid-stretch before getting turned away by that rival. This daughter of Not This Time appears to be an impressive physical specimen who shouldn’t mind stretching out in distance. She’s certainly bred to go longer, out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winning router racing on both dirt and turf. She’s worked twice since the debut to gain some additional fitness. I view her as a most likely winner who may not be as clearly defined in the favorite’s role as she deserves to be. I have more faith in her stretching out than I do her stablemate More Than Grace (#2), who faded to second behind the well meant debut winner Lucille Ball last time. She has pedigree to go longer, but I didn’t love the way she faded in the late stages last time, not striding out like a horse that was looking for more ground. I’d be more optimistic about Hay Evabody (#1) out of that race, since she was at least coming back at the end after getting turned away by the winner in upper stretch. The wild cards in here are the first time starters, of which Ramify (#6) has one of the best pedigrees. This daughter of Munnings is out of a dam who produced maiden Save Time, who has shown some ability. Notably her second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winning dirt route specialist Sightseek. Chad Brown just often gets overbet with these types, so I would rather side with the experience of My Sherrona.
Fair Value:
#4 MY SHERRONA, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 3
Stormin Sammy (#3) could take money after finishing second against maiden special weight company at Finger Lakes. Those races are obviously softer than the same condition at NYRA, so this isn’t as much of a drop in class as it would be for those competing on this circuit. He did earn a field-best 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last performance, but he was fading late after showing speed, which has been a pattern in all three starts so far. I’m a little concerned about him getting the 7 furlongs, but his early zip makes him dangerous. The wild card in the field is Run of the House (#5), who is getting the most class relief of anyone in this field after facing far tougher rivals in that Saratoga maiden race on debut. While those horses were clearly a lot better than these, I still wish he had shown a little more in that race. He briefly chased the pace but was done around the far turn and just eased late. He returns as a new gelding in a better spot, but it’s unclear if he has much ability. My top pick is Bernie Goes Boom (#6), who just seems to be heading in the right direction now. His debut was pretty uninspiring as he lacked speed throughout, and a subsequent turf experiment was similarly dull. Yet he did take a small step forward when he attempted this level getting back on dirt last time. He was never a threat to win, but he was staying on late to catch today’s rival Papa’s Nico Boy for fourth before galloping out best of all. He looks like a candidate to really appreciate this stretch-out to 7 furlongs, and is generally progressing for connections that typically get youngsters to improve over time. He should be a fair price, and I believe he’s among the more likely winners in this field.
Fair Value:
#6 BERNIE GOES BOOM, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 9
Prince Valiant (#2) looks like the kind of first time starter that will take money for Todd Pletcher. He has some quick workouts showing for the debut, and that Nov. 9 gate drill matches Prancing Spirit, who won on debut here two weeks ago. This son of King for a Day doesn’t have much pedigree, and Pletcher does seem to get overbet with these types. I prefer horses with experience. Joker On Fire (#1) makes some sense turning back in distance after he just couldn’t get the mile last time. He had participated in a pretty tough maiden special weight event in his start prior to that, and might be finding a softer field here. Vekinda (#3) will also take money after getting edged out by the rail runner on debut. However, he was meant for turf that day, and he ran pretty well getting on turf last time. I wonder if he will have further upside on this surface. Free Dance (#8) might be a better option at a bigger price. He has steadily improved over his three starts, putting forth his best performance last time when contesting the pace before just failing to hang on for second. He drew a good outside post position here and may get somewhat overlooked. My top pick is Whiskey Frens (#7), who was entered for a tag last week but scratched out of that spot to contest this maiden special weight instead. This colt lost all chance on debut when breaking slowly and throwing his head up at the start, not getting into his full stride until the rest of the field had run away from him. He actually did well to regain contact with the pack, and was only beaten just over 6 lengths for second while earning a respectable speed figure. He’s likely to be more professional this time, and has a pedigree to be a nice runner. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rick Dutrow barn has been winning at over 50% during this current meet.
Fair Value:
#7 WHISKEY FRENS, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 8 - 2
Race 4: 5 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 5: 11 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 10 - 2 - 8 - 1A
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 9 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 5 - 4 - 11 - 7
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
The scratch of Trinity River turns this into a wide open affair. Tonal Silence (#1) now figures to inherit the favorite's role as he drops in class. He faced much better maiden special weight rivals on debut where she showed good speed before fading late. I like that he has that 7-furlong attempt under his belt as he now takes another try at that distance. However, he's picking up Irad Ortiz and is going to be a pretty short price breaking from this difficult inside post. I also worry that he has a bit more of a turf pedigree on the dam's side, so I wonder if his future truly lies on this surface. Solar Glare (#5) achieved an improved result last time against a weaker field at Penn National, but he was probably best that day after making a wide move on the clubhouse turn. I like the slight cutback for him, and I suspect he's better than his recent speed figures suggest. My top pick is Gunman Jayvo (#2). This horse took some serious money on debut for a Randi Persaud first time starter. Perhaps some of that is due to his pedigree, being a New York-bred son of Gun Runner. It’s obviously not a great sign that he only sold for $4,000 at auction given those bloodlines, but he did show some hints of talent on debut. He broke slowly and was outrun early before rallying mildly late to pass some tired rivals. He’s now back at the same level and seems likely to move forward with that experience under his belt, since Persaud rarely has his runners ready to do much on debut. He would need the pace to come apart a bit to upset the favorite, but the stretch-out to 7 furlongs with any kind of pace setup should help.
Fair Value:
#2 GUNMAN JAYVO, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5
Christophe Clement sends out two of the top contenders in this state-bred allowance, led by the returning Al’s Ruby (#5). This filly was pretty impressive drawing away to win her debut by 4 lengths back in April. She didn’t appear to be traveling that well as she lost some ground on the turn, but she really finished powerfully once she straightened up in the lane that day. She’s been off since then, so something clearly went awry out of that victory. She’s been working well for this return to the races, but Christophe Clement is just 4 for 23 (17%, $1.14 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs in dirt sprints over 5 years. Peony (#7) will likely be a better price as she switches back to dirt following a turf experiment last time. That was her return from a layoff and she’s likely to benefit from getting that race under her belt. She does have some turf pedigree, but she already ran quite well on dirt earlier this year. She actually won the other division of Al’s Ruby’s maiden race on April 6, and was geared down in doing so. I expect a better effort here. My top pick is another 3-year-old returning from a layoff. P Mutter Pickle (#11) was impressive winning her debut as a 2-year-old last year, albeit while taking advantage of a rail bias. However, she confirmed her quality in her second start when contesting the pace and battling on for second behind stakes-placed Bernietakescharge. She has since missed most of her 3-year-old season, and came back in a very tough spot this summer at Saratoga in the Bouwerie. She drew a tough inside post position and basically had little chance once she failed to get forward. Now she’s returning from another layoff in a softer spot, and she also drew much better in this outside post. I don’t think she necessarily needs the lead to be effective, and Phil Antonacci can have a horse ready to fire fresh.
Fair Value:
#11 P MUTTER PICKLE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
Likely favorite Keewaydin (#5) participated in one of the strongest 2-year-old maiden races of the summer at Saratoga when just missing in a three-horse photo finish first time out. That form was flattered when Tip Top Thomas returned to finish second in the G1 Champagne and fourth-place Sovereignty won the G3 Street Sense. He found a much softer field when he won his next start at 1-5 odds. While the race came up fast, the horse who challenged him late came back to regress significantly in his next start. Keewaydin is bred to get a mile, but this distance might be a stretch. Chad Brown is 8 for 31 (26%, $1.03 ROI) with last-out maiden winners stretching out for the first time on dirt over 5 years. I’m actually more interested in Chad Brown’s other horse Aviator Gui (#2). He was intended for turf when he broke his maiden two back, but stayed in on dirt and unleashed a strong stretch rally to victory. That’s proven to be a solid race, as runner-up Cyclone State has returned to win his next couple of starts. Chad Brown finally got him on turf last time, but it didn’t work out, as a very wide trip played a role in the result. He’s bred for dirt, being out of a half-sister to Gun Runner, and distance shouldn’t be an issue. My top pick is Studlydoright (#4). It was starting to look like he might be a precocious flash in the pan as he disappointed a few times following that early season victory in the Tremont. However, he ran better it appears in the G1 Hopeful, where he was shut off in mid-stretch just as he was gathering momentum. He then got a very wide trip in the Laurel Futurity, so there were excuses for his lack of progression. He finally got back on track last time in the Nashua, racing with blinkers on. It shouldn’t be some great surprise that he improved with added distance, since he’s a robust son of Nyquist with a long stride. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a legitimate contender here, and he might not get the respect he deserves for lower profile connections.
Fair Value:
#4 STUDLYDORIGHT, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 8
Muhimma (#1) figures to be a very short price as she stretches out and steps up against stakes company for the first time. She couldn’t have been much more impressive in her first couple of starts at Churchill, traveling strongly throughout before drawing clear with authority. She’s a mature-looking daughter of Munnings whose development seems a step ahead of her peers at this stage. However, it remains to be seen if that advantage she possesses will transfer to this 9-furlong distance. Munnings is a highly versatile sire, but not exactly a strong source of stamina. Her dam did win going long, but was a turf horse. Brad Cox, who has strong stats in a variety of categories, is just 4 for 28 (14%, $0.98 ROI) with horses trying a route for the first time in dirt graded stakes over 5 years. She’s the most likely winner, but I’m not keen to accept a short price on a horse trying something new for the first time. Beauty Reigns (#8) is an alternative some might consider after she gamely won her debut last month. However, it’s asking a lot for this filly to stretching all the way out to 9 furlongs in just the second start of her career. Ballerina d’Oro (#10) is perhaps a little more interesting given her foundation of two-turn races, even if they’re all on turf. She had worked well on dirt early in her career, and is bred to handle this surface. My top pick is Liam in the Dust (#2), who was easily beaten by the favorite last time. Yet I thought this filly showed some likeable qualities in defeat, as she got outrun down the backstretch after breaking well and never gave up, rallying into a clear second through the stretch. Some may question her ability to get this distance after she failed her only two turn test in the Alcibiades, but that result isn’t a true indicator of her ability. She was significantly steadied on the far turn before getting eased late. She’s bred to go longer, and moves like a horse who should relish added ground. She’s working well for this start, and I’m expecting a career-best performance.
Fair Value:
#2 LIAM IN THE DUST, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
This Cigar Mile drew an interesting field of 11 but it’s pretty easy to narrow the list of contenders down to the five shortest prices on the morning line. I tentatively made Mullikin (#5) the slight choice on the line, but any of four horses could reasonably go favored here. Mullikin returned for his 4-year-old campaign as a new horse, reeling off four consecutive victories while positioning himself as one of the top sprinters in the country. He perhaps wasn’t beating the strongest Grade 1 field in the Forego, but he won that race convincingly with a 128 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was subsequently made the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, where he could only manage a third-place finish. Yet he was hardly disgraced in defeat, closing well after getting outrun early. He acts like a horse who should handle this stretch-out to a mile, and Rodolphe Brisset is 16 for 63 (25%, $2.34 ROI) with first time routers on dirt over 5 years. Post Time (#11)also exits the Breeders’ Cup, coming off a strong second-place finish in the Dirt Mile. He found himself in last early and made an admirable rally from far off the pace, passing all but a winner who delivered the best performance of his career. It’s not the first time Post Time has run well against top level competition, having placed in the Met Mile and Whitney earlier this year. He won the Carter over this track this spring, and appears to have improved since then. He should be rolling late if pace develops. The two main players who skipped the Breeders’ Cup are both 3-year-olds. Book’em Danno (#1) opted to try softer company in the Grade 3 Perryville at Keeneland and lost as a heavy favorite. However, he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, stuck in traffic along the inside and not finding a clear path until it was too late. I’m just still slightly bothered by the fact that he’s run slightly worse than expectations in three consecutive starts. Locked (#7) could be a popular option as he steps back up into stakes company after missing much of his 3-year-old campaign. He obviously once had the talent to compete at this level, and his return from the layoff was certainly encouraging. It’s just asking a lot of this horse to face a field like this off one return race. My top pick is Senor Buscador (#9), last year’s runner-up in this race. Though he was beaten by 4 lengths, he arguably ran the best race in defeat, attempting to make a wide rally from the back of the pack over a course that was tilted towards inside speed. He’s coming into this year’s Cigar Mile off a similar pattern, having competed in the same series of races leading into this. His form had initially been disappointing when he returned from a layoff this summer, but he got back on track last time in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, arguably running better in that race than he had the prior year. The pace was in his favor, but he had to navigate some traffic trying to close inside as the race came apart. He will appreciate this cutback to one mile, and Joel Rosario appears to be a good fit for him. He also should be the best price among the main players.
Fair Value:
#9 SENOR BUSCADOR, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10
I’m not thrilled with a couple of the short prices in this first-level allowance finale. Reynolds Channel (#7) could go favored as he returns from a brief freshening, but he needs to get back on track after two off the board finishes. It’s easy to excuse his fifth-place result in the H. Allen Jerkens, where he actually ran pretty well against a tough field. However, more was expected of him when he dropped to this level last time at a distance that should have been to his liking. He ranged up on the far turn like he was going to make an impact and just flattened out through the lane. He missed some workouts in October after that, but has gotten back on a consistent pattern recently, so perhaps a better effort is forthcoming. I’m even more skeptical of Quick to Accuse (#8), who ran well when initially switched into the Brad Cox barn early this year. However, he hasn’t run quite as well since moving up to face open company at this level. I think this is an even tougher spot than last time, and he may get overbet for a popular barn. Commuted (#4) is a little easier to endorse after running so well in his first start for Rob Falcone last time following an auction purchase. The only problem is that he was 11-1 that day, and now he’s going to vie for favoritism after his form is exposed. I think there are a couple of bigger prices to consider. The one with more to prove is Iridescent (#11), who is confidently placed at this level in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who isn’t known for getting overlay ambitious with her acquisitions. He’s never gone this far before, but he’s run some of his best races going 7 furlongs, and gets Lasix for the first time as he moves into the Rice barn. I’m expecting him to outrun his odds. My top pick is Air of Defiance (#5), who makes his second start off a layoff. This colt had shown real talent last year in the Brad Cox barn, chasing home champion Fierceness on debut before easily breaking his maiden at Keeneland. Something obviously went badly awry with him to miss nearly a year, and it’s probably not a great sign that he was given to Chad Summers for his return to action this season. Yet I do think he ran better than the result suggests in that comeback race, as he was chasing an extremely fast pace against a very strong field for the level. That race came up fast, and horses have run back to actually flatter that form. He’s bred to get this one-mile distance, and I’m expecting him to take a step forward, especially if he gets a more patient ride here.
Fair Value:
#5 AIR OF DEFIANCE, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 3: 1/1A - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 4 - 1/1A
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 2 - 7 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
The expected heavy favorite El Grande O (#5) returned to action following a 236-day layoff in late October. He had gone to the sidelines in the best form of his career, hitting the board in a series of Derby preps, including the Withers and Gotham. Despite missing all of that time, he came back from the layoff looking better than ever last time. Turning back to a sprint distance, he comfortably rated off the pace before ranging up inside at the quarter pole. He had to angle off the inside to challenge leader Toxic Grey in deep stretch and forged past that rival, earning a career-best 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number was validated when Toxic Grey returned to win, earning a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Those looking to take a shot against the favorite may consider Victory Way (#4), who returns from a lengthy layoff, having not raced since August of 2023. He had trouble at the start of that last race when attempting two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones, and was basically eased late. He had run well off a much shorter freshening prior to that when earning a career-best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for an allowance victory, but that was going a mile. Now he turns back to 6 1/2 furlongs, and I wonder if this is just a stepping stone to a longer target. My top pick is Reddington (#6). This gelding improved significantly this summer when turned back in distance to one-turn races. He put in a performance that was much stronger than the result suggested on June 27, where he was steadied early and got a wide trip against a minor rail bias. He then delivered going 7 furlongs against starter allowance company at Saratoga before stepping up to defeat a much tougher field at the N1X allowance level in September. The fact that he got dismissed at 36-1 that day speaks to the quality of horses that finished behind him. Given that strong form, some might be disappointed in his last effort. However, 6 furlongs is probably a tad short for him, and he also looked uncomfortable racing inside of horses on the turn. He seemed to get discouraged mid-race, but was finishing well across the wire and galloped out strongly. Now he’s drawn in a much more favorable outside post, and he should get the right kind of stalking trip going a half-furlong farther.
Fair Value:
#6 REDDINGTON, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
I would typically be skeptical of a horse like Boss Tweed (#1), who has been a fairly fainthearted frontrunner and seems like a stretch at this 7-furlong distance. However, it’s impossible to ignore the claim by Brad Cox, who has had inordinate success with this move since expanding his claiming operation over the past year. Cox is 9 for 17 (53%, $2.74 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past year. This colt had tailed off for his prior connections, but he’s now moving into a high-percentage barn that apparently isn’t afraid to drop him in class significantly. I’m definitely afraid of this horse, but I don’t really want to bet him at a short price. I just also have questions about others who could take money in this spot. Castle Island (#4) has prior speed figures that would crush this field, but he’s excelled over two-turn route distances. He’s also coming off a layoff for this turnback to a sprint while dropping in for a tag that seems lower than what he should be worth. All of that seems like a bad sign for connections that don’t run on this circuit very much. Abadin (#6) looks more appealing at first glance, facing slightly tougher company in his last couple of starts at Churchill Downs. However, the speed figures for those races look slight inflated based on the runbacks, and it’s hard to envision him working out the right trip since he’s likely to find himself chasing Boss Tweed and he isn’t one that readily passes rivals. Lotsa Trouble (#5) is slightly more interesting as he turns back to a sprint. The 9 furlongs was just too for much for him to handle last time, but I was still disappointed that he threw in the towel so early. It’s unclear if he’s come back as the same horse following a layoff, but this is a better spot. My top pick is Good Reunion (#8). He had a right to need that return at this level last time, where he got ridden a bit too aggressively to chase the pace before fading. He also found himself along the inside in a race that featured an outside flow. Previously his style had been to sit off the pace and launch one run, and he figures to return to those tactics here in a race that features more early speed. He may need to improve slightly on his best to beat this field, but there are many question marks in here and he seems like a good candidate to move forward second off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#8 GOOD REUNION, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
Laird of Magnolia (#2) was never a serious factor in his debut on this surface, but he nevertheless earned a respectable speed figure chasing home three quite talented rivals. He subsequently switched to turf, a surface that he does have some pedigree to handle. He put in a decent effort two back with a good trip, and then was a little disappointing last time, though after going wide and encountering minor traffic. He now drops in class to an appropriate level and gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. He appears to be a bit one-paced, but is nevertheless a logical contender at this level. Brave Bear (#7) already tried this level last time when he got a much more aggressive ride than he had on debut stretching out to this one-mile distance. He paid the price late, fading after contesting that honest pace. However, he should have gained some fitness from that effort and could fare better here. I just wonder if he will ultimately prove best on turf given his dam's side pedigree for that surface. My top pick is second time starter Arcadian (#1). This well-bred son of Maclean’s Music somehow only sold for $22k at his last auction despite being out of a multiple stakes-winning dam, who herself is out of Grade 1 Go For Wand winner Aldiza. He didn’t show much of that family’s talent on debut when breaking very slowly and never making a serious impact. However, he had a right to need that experience, and was staying on late like a horse that would appreciate some added ground. He now makes his second start while racing as a new gelding. It’s a little interesting that John Velazquez takes this mount for Greg Sacco, and it’s not as if he’s encountering a particularly tough field for the level.
Fair Value:
#1 ARCADIAN, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 10 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 4 - 9 - 5 - 6
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
Likely favorite Willful Mama (#2) has done her best running on turf so far even though she’s bred for dirt, being a half-sister to Grade 2 Eight Belles winner My Mane Squeeze, multiple dirt sprint stakes winner Rotknee, and Empire Classic winner Mama’s Gold. She ran pretty well in that last race, stalking outside and getting a little rank onto the backstretch before settling. She put away her pace rival but was no match for winner Five G, who flattered the form when she returned to finish second in the Tepin Stakes. She’ll be tough to handle here if she bring that form to dirt, and perhaps it’s wise to be forgiving of her lone dirt performance since it was her career debut and she ran into undefeated NY-bred star With the Angels. I don’t need a short price on her, but I won’t be surprised when she runs well. Among those switching from dirt to turf, Lady Wisdom (#4) might be just as interesting at a bigger price. Her only dirt start wasn’t much to see, and she took a big step forward when she moved to turf this fall. She did not get a particularly good trip in that race, going 3 to 4-wide around both turns and still staying on for second. She’s clearly a filly who relishes route distances, but now she has to prove she can transfer that form to dirt. The good news is that she is a half-sister to accomplished dirt runners Cinderella’s Cause and Amedeus Music. My top pick is Cara’s Dreamweaver (#6). At first glance it might appear that she’s been heading in the wrong direction since that second-place finish on debut. However, she got a tougher trip than today’s rivals Willful Mama and On a Summer Day when they faced off on turf two back, since she got hung 3-wide on both turns. Then last time she was beaten over 10 lengths on dirt, but she ran a lot better than it looks. She was cut off on the far turn by the third-place finisher Material Girl, who arguably should have been disqualified for that infraction. (Somehow there wasn’t even an inquiry.) She still stayed on gamely after that trouble to get up for fourth before galloping out well. It’s a bit more of a turf pedigree, but her dam did win twice on dirt, and she’s by a dirt sire. Now she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano and should be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#6 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
The scratch of Executive Move really opens up this race, since he figured to be a clear favorite. Iron Man Ira (#2) had been well beaten by that rival in each of his last two starts. The only reason to expect better from him today is due to the trainer, since Rick Dutrow has gone 10 for 15 (67%, $4.31 ROI) at Aqueduct over the past 21 days. This gelding just needs to figure out a way to finish off his races since he tends to shut down in the stretch. Perhaps the other Charlton Baker trainee Stormy's Dreaming (#6) now becomes a little more interesting. He comes off a poor effort when unable to make up ground in a speed-dominated race behind his stablemate. However, that was his return from a brief freshening, and he had run some better races over the summer at Saratoga. First time starter Baron of Sealand (#7) could also attract support as the wild card in this field. He has a nice pedigree, but it’s really more of a turf family, and Danny Gargan’s runners tend to do better after a start anyway. My top pick is second time starter Van Vollenhoven (#8). He began his career sprinting on turf, where he actually ran pretty well at a big price. He broke awkwardly, but quickly rushed up to chase the pace, looming a threat in upper stretch before fading a bit while hanging on his left lead until the final sixteenth. I don’t mind the switch to dirt, since his pedigree can really go either way, being by versatile sire Big Brown out of a dam who achieved all 5 career victories on dirt. His best half-sibling is dirt winner Moonlit Weekend. David Duggan also has good stats with this move, going 32:7-7-3 (22%, $2.77 ROI) with horses switching from turf to dirt over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#8 VAN VOLLENHOVEN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
This race becomes a little less interesting after 4 scratches, but they weren't really horses that interested me that much. Among those left, I’m not inclined to endorse Next On Stage (#2), who seemed to really blossom on turf in the second half of this season and is now forced to switch back to dirt. It is possible that she’s just improved overall as a racehorse in the last few months, but I don’t want to take a short price finding out as she takes money based on turf speed figures. I have similar feelings about Top of the Table (#8), but at least she figures to be a better price, and it’s a little easier to make the case that she has really improved in the last couple of starts. I just wonder if cutting back to shorter distances had a lot to do with that. Linda Rice sends out Pam Pam (#1), who is likely to take more money as she makes her first start off the claim for this barn and moves up in class. She ran pretty well to finish second behind next-out winner Elliptic last time, and shouldn’t mind cutting back a furlong. My top pick is Thirteen Red Flags (#10). She outran her odds when returning from a layoff last week, staying on for second after closing from last against a starter allowance field. She had a right to need that race after spending a few months on the shelf, and I like that she’s coming right back on short rest. Each of her prior victories were earned in similar fashion, as she ran back in 9 days when she broke her maiden, and then in 12 days when she won an allowance last winter. She’s drawn a better post position outside this time, and she’s always acted like a filly who would handle a little added ground.
Fair Value:
#10 THIRTEEN RED FLAGS, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 9
Potential favorite Naughty Destiny (#11) is a total unknown on dirt, but she does possess competitive turf form. More was expected of her last time when she got bet down to favoritism first off the claim for this barn, but she lost momentum after making a bold move to bull her way out in upper stretch. The blinkers that she added that day come right off this time. Her dam earned her only victory on turf, but didn’t run that poorly on dirt, and half-sibling New York Panther has won twice each on turf and dirt. I won’t be surprised when she runs well, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price on her. The two horses who possess some of the best dirt form in this field are both longtime maidens. The more obvious of the two is 22-start maiden Dream On Cara (#5), who has twice finished second at this level in her last couple of starts. She probably should have won two back when she made a long backstretch move after a slow start and then was put in tight quarters along the inside. She ran similarly well last time but was no match for a runaway winner in a speed-dominated race. She shouldn’t mind the slight cutback to 7 furlongs and figures to get a better pace up setup this time. She’s a Natural (#9) sports an even more off-putting 0 for 28 career mark, but she has run well on dirt a few times, even hitting the board at the maiden special weight level last winter. She may be slightly better on turf, but it is worth noting that even her turf form appears to have improved this season. She got a ridiculous trip back in September and was wide throughout again last time. She’s a contender based on form if you believe that the 29th time is the charm. My top pick is Follow Your Arrow (#4). This filly has made her last 6 career starts on the turf, but her lone dirt race on debut really wasn’t any worse than those turf efforts. That dirt performance came very early in her 2-year-old season, and she showed speed before fading to fourth behind three talented male rivals, all of which have since won New York-bred stakes. She should be a serious contender in this spot with any kind of routine improvement. Perhaps her turf form suggests that she hasn’t developed as the connections hoped, but she also may have been running on the wrong surface. She puts blinkers on here looking to race from a forward position, and is getting the class relief she needs.
Fair Value:
#4 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW, at 9-2 or greater
#9 SHE'S A NATURAL, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 9 - 2
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 1 - 7 - 10 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 10: 7 - 2 - 11 - 5
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 4
Trinity River (#1) is arguably the horse to beat even though he’s made all three prior starts on turf. He hit the board in all each of those races while facing solid competition, and now switches to dirt for the first time. He’s doing so out of necessity since turf season has come to an end, but he does have some pedigree to handle the main track. Air Force Blue is a 20% dirt route sire, getting a mix of dirt and turf runners, and the dam’s best foal is 3-time dirt route winner Kara Para, who also transitioned away from turf early in her career. He finished just behind New Matthew (#2) when they met in that Nov. 3 turf race won by George Briggs. New Matthew is another that should have enough pedigree to transfer his form to dirt. However, he did seem to improve significantly when he switched to grass in his second start, and he has the action of a turf horse. He may run well here, but he’s now going to be among the favorites trying something new after going off at bigger prices in his first two outings. Perhaps the most interesting horse from that Nov. 3 affair is Arch’s Assault (#9), who set the pace before fading to fourth. Like New Matthew, he was also making his first turf start in that spot after getting outrun in a dirt sprint on debut. This gelding might have just really appreciated the added ground, because he has much more of a dirt pedigree. His dam is a half-sister to multiple accomplished, stakes-quality dirt horses, including Wildcat’s Smile and Johannesburg Smile. He drew well outside for this switch back to dirt and may still have upside. Among those with dirt form, Sunday Gilt (#5) looks like a candidate to take another step forward. He’s gone off at big prices in both prior starts, not showing much on debut before taking a minor step forward last time. He appeared to be losing ground at the quarter pole of that most recent start, but he maintained his strides nicely through the wire, closing the gap on the two rivals ahead of him before galloping out best of all. He looks like a good candidate to improve again stretching out to a mile. My top pick is second time starter Tap It Easy (#8). This colt took plenty of money on debut, especially for connections that don’t always get bet in that situation. He really doesn’t have much turf pedigree, but he had been working well into that start. He ran like a horse who just needed the race, as he was off a step slowly from the inside and then greenly steadied in traffic in upper stretch before flattening out. His pedigree says that he might be better suited to a dirt route than a turf sprint. He should also have an opportunity to make better use of his early speed from this outside post with the long straightaway going a mile. Michelle Giangiulio is 3 for 6 (50%, $5.73 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#8 TAP IT EASY, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
Snappin Buttons (#1) is obviously the horse to beat based on her form from earlier this year, but questions abound as she returns from a layoff and drops in for this $25k tag. She wouldn’t even have to improve on her form from this spring, as she was already running speed figures that would beat this field without the routine improvement you’d expect. However, she’s still eligible for starter allowance races, and this immediate drop upon return feels like a bad sign. Linda Rice has entered a pair of alternatives. Patty Van Twinkle (#3) is tough to read as she ships in from out of town and switches into the Charlton Baker barn. She’s run a few races that would make her highly competitive with this field, but those efforts are interspersed with poor performances that wouldn’t give her much of a chance. She’s hard to fully trust, but also can’t be dismissed given her high ceiling. My top pick is Valentine Gift (#5), who should be a square price. She began her career on dirt with a debut victory in an off the turf race, and was subsequently thrown into tougher company in the Maid of the Mist. She didn’t get the mile that day, but did run a bit better than it looks when cut back to 6 furlongs in her only other dirt start from last December. She was impeded at the start that day and raced out of position, but did finish with interest and galloped out strongly. She’s raced exclusively on turf since then, but hasn’t really improved much on that surface. Now she’s getting class relief and going back to a surface that she once handled.
Fair Value:
#5 VALENTINE GIFT, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 8
I was mildly against Vettriano in the prior race, and I’m similarly skeptical of Whatchatalkinabout (#10) at what should be a short price in this spot. That Oct. 18 at this level came up reasonably fast, but it’s not like that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him any kind of standout in this field. He was finishing well to just miss after such a long layoff, and he’s apparently worked well since then for Wesley Ward, so a step forward isn’t out of the question. It just feels like his form is fairly exposed at this point. Caldo Candy (#7) earned the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field when he achieved a 113 for his runaway victory at Saratoga in June. He was aided by the track that day, riding an inside speed bias to victory, but it’s not as if that was the first time he had run a fast race. He was also similarly against the track when he showed up last time, racing wide on Aug. 1, a day that featured the strongest rail bias of the entire Saratoga meet. Now he returns from a layoff looking to get back on track. There’s other speed in here to keep him honest up front, but he’s capable of beating this field, including the favorite, on his best day. My top pick is Quiet Wisdom (#1), who returns from a layoff for Todd Pletcher. This colt had been a bridesmaid early in his career, settling for a string of minor awards at short prices. However, the lightbulb appeared to switch on when he broke his maiden by over 10 lengths in March, and he followed that up with a game victory against a decent field of winners in April. I usually don’t like when horses go to the sidelines off a career-best performance, but Todd Pletcher knows how to get a horse ready off a layoff. He’s been working down in Florida for this return at Gulfstream Park, which is a little unusual for a horse of this type. I liked the look of the one workout video I saw, and I don’t mind him turning back to a sprint for this return to the races. He’s competitive here with routine improvement and may actually be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#1 QUIET WISDOM, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10
Even after the scratch of Smile Mon, who would have been a clear favorite, there is still plenty of other early speed. The logical closer is Modica (#11), who ran well at this level and distance two back but has otherwise been campaigned as a turf horse. I want to see him prove his dirt proficiency one more time before backing him in this spot, but he does appear to fit this race pretty well. I See You Lookin (#2) could also benefit from the race flow, but it’s unclear if he’s quite good enough after finishing fourth in a similar spot last time. I did think he was making a nice move on the far turn of that race before flattening out when he ran into some traffic in upper stretch. He stretches back out to a mile here and is at least a candidate to pick up pieces. My top pick is actually another horse from that Nov. 9 affair. Liberte de Bayeux (#7) ran quite well in defeat, chasing some honest fractions before putting away his main pace rivals, only run down by a pair of horses who made wide sweeping moves. I like the way this colt has progressed with each successive start since a disastrous debut that saw him race very greenly. He’s really taken to dirt, and runs like a horse who should has the stamina to handle a little added ground. Omaha Beach is a solid 17% dirt route sire and he has enough route pedigree on the dam’s side. Linda Rice has had success with stretch-outs like this in the past, and he is drawn well outside of all of his main pace rivals.
Fair Value:
#7 LIBERTE DE BAYEUX, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 9 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 9: 8 - 7 - 3 - 6
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
The best horse in this $16k claimer is clearly Lady Laoban (#2), but she has achieved all of her success on the turf. I’m usually inclined to take a strong stand against horses like this when they switch to dirt, but there are a couple of factors that sway me towards a more positive outlook for this filly. She failed to finish in her lone prior dirt start at Saratoga two summers ago, but that performance isn’t nearly as bad as it looks. She actually had decent early position and was traveling well into the turn before Jose Ortiz made the decision to pull her up just past the three-eighths pole. It’s unclear where she would have finished had she been persevered with, but something may have gone wrong given that she spent much of the next year on the shelf. She is bred to be more of a turf horse, but her full-sibling Lisa’s Vision does handle the dirt well enough to be competitive. She now gets significant class relief, and David Duggan is 7 for 31 (23%, $2.86 ROI) going from turf to dirt over 5 years. I much prefer her to Baroness Bourbon (#8), who could take money as she also takes a significant class drop. While she does own some of the best dirt speed figures in the field, she just lacks any early speed and is in questionable form at the moment. My top pick is Duchess of Destin (#1), who has spent much of her career on turf but may actually be a better dirt horse. She was closing belatedly sprinting in her sprint debut on this surface, and then didn’t get back on dirt for over a year until she broke her maiden going two turns at Monmouth this summer. She defeated a decent horse in Autumn’s Turn, who would be a contender in this spot. She then wasn’t entered back on dirt until last time, where she dropped her rider after a stumbling start. However, that replay is still worth a watch, since she proceeded to run off riderless, opened up on the field, bolted on the turns, and still went on to finish ahead of the winner. While it’s probably unwise to place too much emphasis on that riderless tour of the track, it does seem notable that she at least seemed to enjoy the surface. She’s catching a soft field here, and has more upside than most.
Fair Value:
#1 DUCHESS OF DESTIN, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 5
Melancia (#1) could go favored as she gets significant class relief in her second start. She was simply overmatched on debut when going off at 29-1 against open maiden special weight company. That was a fast race for the level won by professional first time starter Lucille Ball, who achieved a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure in victory. Melancia won’t be facing any rivals of that quality in here, and she really doesn’t have to improve that much on her own 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this group. The only drawback is that Rob Atras is only 4-for-58 (7%, $0.86 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years, and she figures to be a short price. Gaga’s Hamsome (#2) makes sense after running reasonably well in a couple of races at this level. She was no match for a tougher field two back when staying on for third, and then last time she traveled well in behind horses on the turn but came up empty when she found running room in the stretch. She seems to fit here, but I wonder if we’ve already seen the best she has to offer right now. My top pick is Central Casting (#4), who didn’t show much on debut after a slow start, lagging towards the back of the pack early before making some mild late progress. She ran much better last time despite going off at another big price. She got off about two lengths behind the field, and then quickly rushed up to contest pace. She wasn’t able to make the lead and got stuck racing in the pocket, traveling very keenly behind the leaders. She angled inside in upper stretch searching for room, but then had to alter outside, losing some momentum. She still finished gamely to get up for third in a performance that was much better than the result indicates. The obvious concern is that she’s broken slowly twice in a row and has to break that habit if she’s to take another step forward here. However, she’s still lightly raced, and should have the speed to take these gate to wire if she can finally get away cleanly.
Fair Value:
#4 CENTRAL CASTING, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 9
Uncorrelated (#10) showed speed and faded in a Sep. 29 off the turf race at this level, making his first start since a lengthy layoff. He should take money again going out for the Chad Brown barn, but these types are often ready to fire in their return efforts, so I wonder how much improvement he can muster. I’m also concerned that a mile is just too far for him. I’d be more interested in third-place finisher Az U Chase Me (#6) out of that same race, since he is now cutting back to a one-turn race for the first time since then. Confabulation (#3) figures to attract support in his second start since getting claimed by Rick Dutrow. He broke his maiden in his first start for the new barn last time, leading throughout after setting moderate fractions. He’s now stepping up against a tougher field, but it’s hard to ignore anything the Dutrow barn has sent out lately, since he’s winning at 50% since the start of this current meet. A wild card is Register (#7), who was uncompetitive in his return from a layoff at the allowance level last time. However, that proved to be an awfully tough spot where he found himself chasing stakes winner El Grande O and subsequent 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure allowance winner Toxic Gray. He’s finally getting class relief after a string of poor efforts and may be capable of better as he picks up Dylan Davis. My top pick is Noble Huntsman (#8). This 4-year-old may be tough for some to endorse given his 1 for 27 lifetime record, but he’s only raced on dirt in 6 of those starts, and he handled this surface without issue last winter while facing tougher company than this. He was hardly disgraced chasing home the likes of Light Man, who has since gone on to become a stakes winner. All of his prior dirt starts came at the allowance level, and now he’s dropping in for a tag on this surface for the first time. He did try claiming company in a few turf races this summer, and arguably should have won on Aug. 4 when hung wide around both turns from an outside post. He appears to be about as talented on dirt as he is on turf, and now he’s dropping to the right level in a race that is supposed to feature an honest early pace.
Fair Value:
#8 NOBLE HUNTSMAN, at 5-1 or greater
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