TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

This race will be reduced to at most 4 starters with the sad passing of Christophe Clement yesterday necessitating the scratches of both of his entries here. That leaves no clear cut favorite among this quarter with Seat at the Table (#3) and Siempre Elegante (#6) likely to be the two shortest prices. Neither one of these fillies does a whole lot for me as a favorite. I have to bet Lady Firefoot (#4) if she's the third choice in this spot. She's shown more ability than the two favorites, including when she upset a field at 52-1 at this exact same level last October. Since then she's been in nothing but stakes company, including some ridiculous spots the last couple of times. She didn't even run that badly in a few of her losses, getting some particularly wide trips or making ill-advised early moves on a few occasions. Now she gets a meaningful rider switch to Christopher Elliott, and is finally spotted at an appropriate level. I'm less interested in this race after scratches but could still bet this horse if the price is fair.

Fair Value:
#4 LADY FIREFOOT, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 2

I suppose Starlight Dancer (#9) is the horse to beat based on her races for a claiming tag last fall. She ran especially well on Oct. 13 when setting a fast pace for the distance before getting reeled in by a winner who got a great trip and setup. She wasn't successful after getting bumped at the start in her 2024 finale, and then was similarly sluggish in the early stages off the layoff last time. She did make a mild 4-wide bid around the far turn before flattening out. Now she gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche and has a big chance if she can get better early position. Lacking good position has also been an issue for Loveumissumeanit (#5), who is even more of a confirmed deep closer. She had little choice but to go backwards from post 12 last time, and she was finishing decently when asked late. She needs to avoid dropping so far off the pace this time, but may benefit from a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana. My top pick is Purest Performance (#4). This mare might not look so appealing at first glance given her 0 for 15 record. Yet only 8 of those prior efforts have come on turf, and she's clearly a better turf horse. She outran her 90-1 odds when finishing a close third behind Starlight Dancer here last September, and she hasn't been in an ideal situation since then. She chased a fast pace that collapsed against males in October, then tried to sprint. In her only turf start this year, she found herself chasing 3-wide without cover and only faded after taking a hard bump in upper stretch. She should benefit from getting that race under her belt and now she gets a significant rider upgrade to Ruben Silvera.

Fair Value:
#4 PUREST PERFORMANCE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

Annexperience (#7) figures to take money as one of the only runners in this field with solid turf form. He debuted on this surface last summer at Saratoga, making a nice late run up the rail to get into second. I didn't love the field he was facing that day, and he did get a strong pace ahead of him. Yet his 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him competitive here, and he still has upside with routine improvement now that he's a year older. Identity Crisis (#8) may also take money in his career debut, especially since he's campaigned by MyRacehorse. Tom Morley isn't known for first out success, but this gelding sports some quick workouts for the unveiling. He has more dirt sprint pedigree on his dam's side, but he is by 13% turf sprint sire Blame. I just thought some others would offer better value. There are a few horses trying this surface for the first time who figure to like it. No Problem (#10) was meant for turf when he debuted here last month, and ran a decent race behind the talented Leon Blue despite never threatening. I don't mind progeny of Improbable getting on turf, and there's enough grass in his pedigree to suggest he should like it. I also think Roofer (#9) is pretty interesting coming out of that same race. Honest Mischief hasn't had too many progeny try the turf, but he's had some success with those limited starters. His dam never won on turf, but she did seem to prefer that surface. This horse possesses dangerous early speed, and could take these a long way on the front end. My only knock is that he could take money off a good dirt effort last time. My top pick is Come Full Circle (#12), who was entered for dirt on debut, likely just looking to get some experience. He didn't take any money in a tougher spot than this, won by the California shipper Train the Trainer. He lost by a dozen lengths to that foe, but he was hardly disgraced, racing wide on the turn and staying on with some interest through the lane. The fact that he ran competitively at all on dirt is a good sign, since his pedigree is overwhelmingly turf-oriented. His sire Slumber has been strictly a grass influence, and his dam did all of her best running on turf. He also won't be as short a price as horses with this kind of profile tend to be given the lower profile connections.

Fair Value:
#12 COME FULL CIRCLE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's quite possible that Bosun (#12) may simply be too tough for this field to handle, but he's going to be a very short price off exposed form, so I'm not telling you anything that isn't obvious on paper. He earned a strong speed figure when he broke his maiden on turf at Fair Grounds, and backed up that effort with a strong second behind the impressive Friend Ofthe Devil here in April. He was beaten 3 1/2 lengths by that foe, but he did have to go 4-wide around much of the far turn whereas those who finished directly behind him saved ground. A repeat of that performance makes him the clear horse to beat. Li'l Lang (#7) was one of those horses who finished just behind Bosun last time, and I do think he has some upside second off the layoff. He got mildly shuffled into the far turn before staying on for fourth, but he did save ground for his entire trip. I suspect Bosun is simply a better horse. I'd rather explore some wild card options if trying to beat the favorite. One of those is Waralo (#5), who tries turf for the first time. I'm always inclined to gravitate toward these types, but I want to be careful with a horse like this, who was never intended for turf despite being by excellent turf sprint sire War Dancer. His dam has produced good sprinters on both surfaces, including 3 turf winners. He seems like a horse that should have the versatility to handle grass, and I'm encouraged that all of his best dirt races have come on sealed tracks. Yet Chris Englehart does not have good stats with this move. My top pick is Dancing Bear (#4), who returns from a layoff for his 3-year-old debut. He got a great trip when he broke his maiden in his initial turf start last July, but he still earned a respectable 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for so early in his juvenile season. I don't want to be too hard on him for disappointing in a stakes out of town after that, since he was facing some of the better 2-year-old turf sprinters in the country and never had great early position. He now returns as a new gelding with Lasix showing a bullet gate work this month. Carlos Martin is 4 for 17 (24%, $2.89 ROI) off 180 to 360 day layoffs in sprints over 5 years, with 10 hitting the board. He could easily factor here with routine improvement.

Fair Value:
#4 DANCING BEAR, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

Right to Win (#8) may finally get the job done at a very short price, but this isn't my kind of horse. He's dropping down after picking up a series of minor awards against maiden special weight company, but he really wasn't a threat to win any of those races. He typically lacks a late punch, and his most recent effort, his second following a layoff that lasted over a year and a half, was his worst performance to date. He may win, but I don't need him as a heavy favorite. The obvious alternative is first time turfer Majorca (#2), who also drops in for a tag for the first time. Volatile has had mild success with turf horses so far, and he is a half-brother to turf sprint stakes winner El Terreno, so he has a right to handle this surface. I just don't like that Pletcher never showed much interest in getting this horse on turf before, and it's not like he was some terribly expensive auction purchase that needed to prove he wasn't a dirt horse. My top pick is Laird of Magnolia (#1), who finally gets back on this preferred surface. He failed to hit the board in both turf attempts last season, but he didn't run that badly on either occasion. He faced a tough field on Oct. 12, and was running on belatedly to achieve a 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. His second turf effort in November isn't as bad as the result might suggest, since he got bumped hard coming out of the chute, and then encountered some traffic at the quarter pole that cost him a bit of momentum. He hasn’t run well on dirt since then, but he's clearly a turf horse, and now he's making his first start on his preferred surface since the trainer switch to the underrated Antonio Arriaga. It also doesn't hurt that Joel Rosario hops aboard.

Fair Value:
#1 LAIRD OF MAGNOLIA, at 7-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Shesalittle Edgy (#2) will obviously beat this field if she runs back to any of her better efforts. However, there has to be some concern about her condition after a lackluster performance last time. She had been highly competitive at that $32k level in the past, but she didn't break alertly, got mildly steadied, and could never recover. Getting out of the gate cleanly has been a problem for her lately, and that concern is exacerbated here by her drawing inside of other speed. She's supposed to be too tough for these to handle dropping in for $16k, but she could prove vulnerable if she doesn't get her preferred trip. Collect Dattt (#6) will try to get back to the winner's circle after getting the job done off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci two back. She was mildly disappointing last time when just missing as the favorite, and now she's claimed back by her former connections. Goldcrest (#3) merits some consideration making her first start off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, who is 10 for 60 (17%, $2.96 ROI) with this move over the last 5 years. She has to get back to some better races from the past, but it seems like a good sign that Irad Ortiz rides for this barn. My top pick is Jackie the Joker (#5), who figures to get a much more aggressive ride than she did at the $20k level last time. James Ferraro had two speeds entered in that spot, it was clear that Jackie the Joker is the one that wasn't intended to go forward after her stablemate broke so sharply. This mare does her best work when she gets to the lead, and Lane Luzzi has ridden her that way in the past, including a gate to wire score two back. That was her first start back with Ferraro after going through a few different trainers, and she has run her best races for this barn.

Fair Value:
#5 JACKIE THE JOKER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

Sand Devil (#2) will be a handful if he gets back to his best efforts from early in his career. However, there has to be some concern about his trajectory after he was mildly disappointing as the favorite in the Gotham and then never looking like himself in a dull effort when sixth in the Wood Memorial. Linda Rice is now regrouping with him, cutting back to a one-turn mile and dropping him into an allowance race. Yet it's not as if he's caught a soft field here, and I'm reluctant to take a short price on a horse who has some questions to answer. Main rival Tip Top Thomas (#4) did finish second in the Champagne going this distance last year, but he also has to prove that he can get back to his better form after a somewhat disappointing return at Keeneland. The 6 furlongs shouldn't have been too short for him since he showed so much speed on debut last year. That last race has been productive, but I still wanted to see him show more. My Mitole (#7) put in a decent effort despite finishing last of three at this level last month. He lacks the upside of some others, but the distance works for him, and he doesn't figure to be too short a price. My top pick is actually the other Carlos Martin runner. Turn and Count (#3) obviously needed his debut sprinting where he was never involved. He showed much more in his second start, a race that he probably would have won if not for significant traffic in the stretch. He was loaded behind the leaders at the quarter pole, but could never extricate himself from that pocket, stymied with nowhere to go through the wire. He finally got the job done last time in the slower of two maiden races on that card, but the third-place finisher did come back to win, suggesting that it might have been a stronger race than the time suggested. This horse has a lot of pedigree behind him, and is the one I can point to who still has plenty of upside.

Fair Value:
#3 TURN AND COUNT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

Neither favorite does that much for me in this conditioned claimer. Scarlet's Dream (#7) is obviously going to be formidable given her superior speed figures and respectable form at a higher level than this. She's probably dropping into a spot where she belongs, racing for $30k after the connections claimed her for $40k back in January. She's just not a horse with much substance to her, so I always wonder about her ability to see things out when push comes to shove, but she clearly makes sense. The only horse I would be interested in betting here is Bella Voce (#2). I don't trust her early speed figures from Finger Lakes very much, but I'm more focused on her last two races at Aqueduct prior to the layoff. She didn't get ideal trips either time. She broke a step slowly and then got rank when trying to move up down the backstretch, steadied at the five-eighths pole. Then last time she broke better and could have shown more speed before getting rated inside. She lacked any finish, but she went to the sidelines thereafter. Now she returns racing for the claiming waiver, which would usually lead me to believe a horse needs a race. Yet Linda Rice is far more business savvy than the average trainer, so I wouldn’t think she'd bother protecting a horse she didn't believe had a better effort in her.

Fair Value:
#2 BELLA VOCE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

There isn't much turf form to analyze in this state-bred maiden claimer. I suppose a horse like Makeyourmoment (#2) will attract support given his competitive speed figures on this surface, but I can't say that I love any of his efforts on this surface. He got a pretty good trip when he returned from the layoff last time and got to the front in mid-stretch, but was just unable to see it out to the wire. He is getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat here, but that also means he's unlikely to be an interesting price. Viking Warrior (#8) seems like a horse that could do better on this surface now that he's a year older. He was facing a much tougher field when he tried turf as a 2-year-old and just seemed to get outrun early before staying on late without threatening. He has upside on grass, but my one concern is the layoff, since Rick Dutrow's runners often need a start upon returning. There are a couple of first time surfers to consider. Gorzo (#1) is by good turf influence Big Brown with some turf influences in the second generation of his female family. He moves like a horse that might take to turf, but does have to improve on this surface. My top pick is Big Ego (#11), who may get dismissed by some handicappers due to his 0 for 13 career record. Yet this is a horse that I've been waiting to see get on turf for basically his entire career. He was entered for this surface one time, last June at Saratoga, and was rained off, and he hasn't gotten an opportunity to try turf since then due to changing barns and competing through the winter. While his pedigree isn't overwhelmingly turf-oriented, his dam was best on grass and did produce a turf winner. He has the exaggerated, high-striding action of a grass horse to go along with that pedigree. There doesn’t appear to be much speed in here, and I think Javier Castellano will have a chance to wire the field.

Fair Value:
#11 BIG EGO, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Forever to Go (#10) and Wild Mischief (#9) met a couple of times during their 2-year-old seasons in each of their only two prior turf attempts. Forever to Go showed her typical speed in both of those grass races before fading in the last furlong each time. She was beaten by Wild Mischief in their first meeting, but turned the tables on that rival when they met on Oct. 26. However, Wild Mischief didn't get an ideal trip in that most recent turf start. She got steadied moving down the backstretch and then encountered traffic when attempting to angle out at the quarter pole. She hasn't run well on dirt since then, but she's clearly more of a turf horse and now gets back on that preferred surface. I definitely preferred that Mike Maker trainee of these two contenders. There are some intriguing first time turfers to consider. The horse with the most convincing dam's side pedigree is Mega Changer (#1), who is out of Grade 1 winner and millionaire turf mare Megahertz. She hasn't been nearly as strong a producer as she was a racehorse, but Megahertz has produced 2 turf winners from her 3 winning foals. Mega Changer showed speed before backing up on debut, and last time rated off the pace before making some mild late progress. She seems like a candidate to benefit from this surface switch. My top pick is another horse trying grass for the first time. Silsbee (#4) was meant for this surface on debut last fall and stayed in to get some experience when the race was rained off. She broke a bit awkwardly before settling in mid-pack. She swung out in upper stretch but lacked a late punch. She was spinning her wheels over that sloppy surface, but her action suggested that she should take to turf. Vekoma is an emerging turf influence, winning at nearly 20% with this turf starters. There isn't so much obvious turf pedigree on the dam's side, but the dam is a half-sister to 3-time turf sprint winner Queen of the Track. George Weaver is 7 for 32 (22%, $3.87 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time in sprints over 5 years, with 17 hitting the board in that sample.

Fair Value:
#4 SILSBEE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's hard to have much confidence in any of the short prices in this $35k conditioned claimer. Royal Browne (#3) looks most convincing of the contenders based on his best turf form, and it's pretty easy to excuse his return from the layoff against tougher competition last month. Rick Dutrow runners tend to do better with a start under their belts returning from a layoff. I just see quite a bit of early speed in this race, and I'm a little worried that he may get caught up in a quick pace. Kick a Buck (#6) has a better running style for this kind of spot, but he seemed to tail off when last seen in the fall and winter. He's dropping to the right level for his return, but I'm not exactly keen to take a short price on him either. American Grant (#12) is a runner that I was chasing through much of last season. He has had his fair share of wide trips, but he often leaves himself with too much ground to make up. He was better than the result suggests in this 2024 finale when he made a big, wide move on the far turn before flattening out. He was vanned off that day, and now returns following a needed freshening. Any pace that develops will help him, and the drop in class is what he needs. My top pick is Gotta Guy (#11). This 3-year-old steps up against older company with some things to prove on the surface. Yet he has been badly overmatched in both prior turf attempts. He met a solid maiden special weight field on debut last summer at Saratoga and didn't even run that badly within the context of that race. He then was placed way over his head when he returned to grass last time in a stakes quality allowance. He's gotten some time off and now returns to New York as a new gelding after training in Florida through the spring. I think he has upside on this surface, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#11 GOTTA GUY, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 9

Assuming the AE Dakota Country (#13) doesn't draw in, this seems like a pretty wide open race without much recent turf form. Patronage (#11) could vie for favoritism as he returns from a layoff first off the claim for Mike Maker. This horse just lacks any early speed, and was pretty dull when he dropped in for a tag last time at Gulfstream. He already missed a lot of time between his 2-year-old and 3-year-old seasons, and I'm skeptical tat he can get back into form. I view Iron Max (#2) as the horse to beat as he finally gets back into a turf route. This horse didn't get the right trip the one time he tried going long on this surface as a 2-year-old, and also met a pretty tough field at Saratoga that was dominated towards the front end. He has improved since then, and showed a good late kick going shorter when he returned for new trainer Amelia Green last time. I don't think he's going to be a particularly interesting price with Flavien Prat retaining the mount, but I view him as the most likely winner. Tap It Easy (#7) also intrigues me getting back to turf, since he probably needed his debut on this surface, and has since improved going longer. He did tail off when last seen, but now he returns as a new gelding. My top pick is Oath of Omerta (#12), who also has just one prior start on turf. That came against a tougher open company field down in Florida late last year. While never seriously involved, he was hardly disgraced against a tougher field than this. He then tried synthetic when last seen in January, setting the pace before fading to fifth. He only got a 73 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, but that's proven to be a much stronger race than the figure indicates, with many horses returning to improve. He now returns as a new gelding getting back on turf. This is the surface he's best bred for, out of a dam who excelled on grass. He's getting a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana and figures to fly under the radar despite the drop in class.

Fair Value:
#12 OATH OF OMERTA, at 10-1 or greater
#2 IRON MAX, at 4-1 or greater