TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm primarily focusing on first time turfers in an opener without much grass form. Miss Call (#1) picked up some pieces in a race that was falling apart on debut, and American Mink (#7) looks like a horse that could appreciate some added ground. I just had some doubts about the overall talent of either one of those options with grass experience. Then there's first time starter My Blue Line (#5), who does have plenty of European turf pedigree. However, his sire Blue Point was a sprinter, and George Weaver does his best work with first time starters going shorter in these situations. So it's the first time turfers for me. The most logical of those is probably Two by Two by Two (#6), who is out of a dam that won 4 times on the turf, and new sire Rock Your World is starting to look like developing turf influence. I like the way this filly stayed on last time, looking like a true route type. She would also be no surprise making the switch for dangerous connections. Karey (#4) caught a very tough maiden field on debut at Saratoga, finishing behind the stakes-bound Carmel Coast plus two next-out winners. Her sire Beau Liam hasn't yet had success with turf runners, but her dam is a half-sister to turf stakes-placed Strike Accord. She looked to at least handle the surface when she got a spin over the Oklahoma turf course in August. My top pick is Salt Princess (#3), who finally switches to grass for David Donk after 3 dirt attempts in Saratoga. She should move up on this surface as a daughter of 13% turf route sire Cairo Prince. Since her debut, I've thought she had a bit of a turf look to her, and more than that, she just strikes me as one that wants more ground. Donk isn't afraid to get a few prep races into a horse before running them in a spot like this, and I like that John Velazquez, who has been aboard from the start, retains the mount on this developing filly.

Fair Value:
#3 SALT PRINCESS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 2

Likely favorite Ticket to Ride (#1) ran a race that would probably beat this field in her only turf start. She was facing a solid group for the level and was a little unlucky not to win after encountering stretch traffic. Privately purchased thereafter and rained off the turf, she now gets back on her preferred surface, and is obviously dangerous. Fancy Lights (#3) met some similar rivals on debut at Saratoga and ran a decent race. However, she did look pretty green through the lane, swapping leads and lugging in. George Weaver tends to have his debut runners ready, so her lack of professionalism is a mild concern. Yet she's clearly a contender if able to maintain better focus. Atenea (#5) displayed improved speed getting on turf last time, and was just run down in the late stages by a longshot. She has to see out the 6 furlongs here, and it remains to be see how much pressure she'll get from the ML favorite on the rail. My top pick is another horse from that Aug. 6 race. Dancingwithdestiny (#4) probably needed that experience, as she broke a step slowly and moved up along the inside into contention at the top of the stretch. She was a bit green from there, lugging in slightly, but she still stayed on well for third, always making up ground on the top pair. She should move forward here for a barn whose runners tend to do better after a start, and the added distance can only help.

Fair Value:
#4 DANCINGWITHDESTINY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

Leading Role (#4) faced tougher rivals in both prior dirt starts at Churchill Downs. While he has some turf pedigree, he's the full-brother to graded stakes winning dirt sprinter Red Carpet Ready, and he's shown more affinity for dirt in the afternoons. He may just be dropping to the right level, but probably won't be an interesting price. I'm not expecting Freedom Maker (#6) to offer value either, though he's another getting significant class relief as he drops down. He has faded in recent starts going longer, so perhaps turning back in distance will suit him. Linda Rice is 16 for 45 (36%, 1.93 ROI) going from routes to sprints on dirt in maiden claiming races over 5 years. I'll try to beat them with Nice Try Riley (#2). I had thought this gelding was an interesting new face when he showed up at Saratoga last time, after getting some less than ideal trips and rides in his first couple of starts at Gulfstream. He may have needed that return race off a layoff, as he tried hard and just tired late. I expect him to show more speed with the addition of blinkers here. He does have more of a dirt pedigree, and deserves another chance on this surface.

Fair Value:
#2 NICE TRY RILEY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

My primary opinion in this Athenia is that I don't want Whiskey Decision (#4), who figures to take money by default going out for the popular duo of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. She did run well off the layoff and barn change when she won the Eatontown in her seasonal debut, but she also got a perfect trip coming up the rail. I thought she was disappointing in the Ballston Spa next time, and while this is class relief, I have some concerns that we've already seen the best she has to offer. Between the horses exiting the Ballston Spa, I prefer Edict (#1) at a bigger price. She has been inconsistent since coming to North America, but she ran a race that could beat this field in the Beaugay over this course back in May. Notably that was the last time they rated her, and I wonder if they'll go back to those tactics here. All of the other major contenders exit the Yaddo for New York-breds. Moonage Daydream (#5) is the one you would expect to move forward out of that spot since she was making her first start of the season that day. She ran well to be second, but stalled in the last furlong after making her move. I do wonder a little about the added ground. Even though she won going this distance last year, she was setting a very slow pace that day, and I think she might be better going a bit shorter. I'll be interested to see how the pace develops in this Athenia, as my top pick Spinning Colors (#3) has proven herself to be a one-dimensional frontrunner this year. However, few may be willing to go after her early, especially if Edict changes tactics here under a new rider. Spinning Colors ran especially well two back when just missing against some tough open company rivals in the De La Rose. She was hardly disgraced when getting run down after setting a legitimate pace in the Yaddo last time, and will be tough to catch here with a similar effort. She's never gone this far before, but she's certainly bred to handle the distance.

Fair Value:
#3 SPINNING COLORS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

The short prices in this allowance don't really scare me. Launch Control (#1) ran a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure when last seen over this course and distance, and a repeat of that number would almost certainly beat this field. However, that most recent start came well over a year ago, and this barn hasn't had that much success off layoffs with its flat runners. Not for Hire (#3) showed form early this season that would make him a logical contender in this race. I can even excuse his effort two back at Saratoga, since he blew the start, and actually ran on well for fourth. However, his last race is a major concern, since he backed up prematurely and just never looked like himself. He also may not get his preferred trip here with so much early speed signed on. Any pace that develops would help Alan Turing (#4), who rode the rail to a closing second-place finish at this level on Aug. 16. He will be a fraction of the 25-1 he was last time, but sprinting clearly works for him and he should get another favorable pace setup. I think he's a horse that has to be used here. Stormy Birthday (#6) is another also-ran from that Aug. 16 affair who should appreciate going a little longer here. He was wide two back, and won at a huge price the last time he went this distance in May. He will just have to do it with a different trip this time. My top pick is definitely a reach, but I do think Scaramanga (#5) has a chance to outrun his odds in this spot. He has never hit the board on turf, but two of those prior efforts came early in his career before he found his best form. He didn't get back on grass until that most recent start at Saratoga, in that same Aug. 16 race, and he just never had a chance to be successful. He was stuck wide early, and got hung 4 to 5-wide all the way around the far turn in a race dominated by horses who saved ground. He has a turf pedigree, and deserves another chance on this surface at a huge price.

Fair Value:
#5 SCARAMANGA, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's not a groundbreaking opinion, but I just think Spun Size (#6) is landing in a great spot as she drops back down into a conditioned claiming race. She had shown subtle improvement for her prior connections last winter, and proved vastly superior to a weak group when she appeared at Saratoga this summer, taking advantage of a race rained off the turf. She stepped up to a tougher spot last time and confirmed her improved form despite losing. She got placed in an uncomfortable position early, racing in tight quarters before getting shuffled back into the turn. Now she makes her first start off the claim for Bruce Brown, who has quietly done very well with his recent claims. She should also benefit from drawing outside her main pace rivals this time. I'm Buzzy (#1) might be the class of this field, but her closing style and tendency to settle for minor awards makes it tough to endorse her on the win end. There also has to be some concern about her current form after a couple of lackluster performances in her last two starts. She's also going out for a barn that has been a little cold on this circuit. Melle Mel (#2) is another who could take some money making her first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who has already won a couple times with this move since returning from a suspension. I just didn't like the field she beat last time, and she had to work harder than expected for that victory. Looking beyond the top pick, Amy's Light (#4) ran some races in the first half of the year that make her a decent fit against this group. That second place finish to Pretty Magical in May was the best effort of her career, and prior to that she had won in her only start against claiming company since last year. She has some things to prove coming off a poor effort and subsequent layoff, but should be a square price as she drops down. I'm using her underneath the top choice.

Fair Value:
#6 SPUN SIZE, at 9-5 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 5

True Connection (#8) looks like a logical favorite after tiring late in a couple of efforts at this level in Saratoga. While I don't love that he's claimed away from Brad Cox, Rob Atras is coming off a pretty solid Saratoga meet where he finished in the exacta with over 50% of his starters. True Connection was involved in an honest pace out of the Wilson Chute last time, and should get a more comfortable trip from the outside in a race that doesn't appear to feature much early pace. Always Be Smart (#2) also makes his first off the claim, going out for Tom Morley, who is 10 for 43 (23%, $2.81 ROI) making that move in dirt routes over the last 5 years. He's not exactly a winning type, having won just once in 16 starts, but he was squeezed back at the start of that Aug. 14 race out of the Wilson Chute. He has plenty of prior speed figures that put him in the mix here, but his lack of positional speed is a concern. In a race where no one looks particularly formidable, perhaps Brave Bear (#5) can take a step forward first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The barn has been cold lately, but has already come out firing with a couple of winners at Aqueduct after an unproductive Saratoga. Rudy is also getting this horse from a pair of trainers who haven't exactly been winning races in bunches lately, so it does feel like an upgrade. He got outrun going 6 furlongs last time, but I've always felt he's better with slightly more ground. He should get an aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera in a race lacking much pace, and this is the right level for him.

Fair Value:
#5 BRAVE BEAR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Slapintheface (#10) is a very logical contender in this state-bred allowance optional claimer. While he's settled for second far more than he's won over the past few seasons, his consistency is admirable. He's also shown some versatility of running style this year, which should help Manny Franco work out a trip from this wide draw. He was just picking up pieces in that Aug. 10 race that many of these exit, but he did finish well behind dominant winer Conman (#13), who is stuck on the AE list here. Conman would be dangerous if he drew into the field, but I didn’t think he really stepped forward off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time. He would also be stuck with a disadvantageous post position even if he participates. Cable Ready (#12) is another who was done no favors by the draw. That's a shame, since he was also hampered by a wide trip when last seen in that Aug. 10 allowance at this level, and still closed for third at a big price. He lacks the consistency of some others, but he's capable of making an impact here on his best day. Rabaja (#4) looks like a candidate to move forward out of that Aug. 10 affair where he returned from a 10-month layoff. He was chasing outside throughout before tiring late, and may save ground from an inside draw here. He's just run his best races with the early lead and he probably isn't getting it here. There figures to be at least a fair amount of pace in this race, and that's what my top pick American Grant (#7) needs to be most effective. He just never looked comfortable rating at the back of the pack last time in that Aug. 10 race that so many of these exit. Even though the fractions look fast, that field was pretty bunched and American Grant was pulling behind horses after a slow start. He ran well to win against a decent field two back, and generally has shown improved form since returning for his 5-year-old campaign. He retains one of the best turf jockeys in the colony, and goes out for a trainer who has subtly had a strong year.

Fair Value:
#7 AMERICAN GRANT, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Classicist (#8) as he makes his first start against winners. While his speed figures don't exactly tower over this field, the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he achieved for his maiden victory last time is very respectable for the level. It's also worth noting that he earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure during his 2-year-old season when chasing home future champion Sovereignty, so he still has room to improve now as an older horse. It looked like he relished the stretch-out to 9 furlongs last time, conquering that distance despite returning from a lengthy layoff. He had subsequently been entered in that Aug. 10 allowance race at Saratoga that a few of these exit but was a late scratch. He's worked three times since then, and appears to be tack on track for this step up in class. Classicist isn't a horse who needs the lead, but he does have the tactical speed to get forward in a race lacking confirmed frontrunners. The Pace Projector shows him with a slight advantage through the first half-mile, and whether he attains that position depends on who aggressive Kendrick Carmouche decides to be at the start, since this race does begin close to the clubhouse turn. I'm expecting a step forward here, and Todd Pletcher tends to do well when taking this path. Over the last 5 years, Pletcher is 12 for 38 (32%, $2.35 ROI) with last-out maiden winners making their following start in an allowance race between 8.5 and 9 furlongs on dirt. Among his main rivals is Tuscan Gold (#6), who has been pretty popular with the bettors since returning as a 4-year-old. He made it into some graded stakes last year and is still trying to build on the promise he showed back then. He appreciated some added ground last time, but was never a serious threat in a race dominated up front. I'm just worried that he might again encounter an unfavorable pace scenario here. Sturdy (#7) picked up pieces behind the top pick at this distance two back and can do so again after finally breaking his maiden last time. 

Fair Value:
#8 CLASSICIST, at 6-5 or greater