TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Neither favorite is that appealing to me in this state-bred first-level allowance that opens the Sunday card. Hey Toby (#7)has obviously run some of the fastest speed figures in this field, but he's generally been somewhat disappointing on the NYRA circuit, producing his best form at Finger Lakes. He did run reasonably well last time, and finished ahead of main rival Undisputed (#1). I just don't see him improving on that performance at what's likely to be a short price. Undisputed clearly didn't run his race last time, regressing out of a pretty decisive maiden win at Saratoga. He just never looked comfortable, making an early move between horses and traveling awkwardly on the turn before backing up. He's better than that, and may rebound here as he returns on relatively short rest. I may have pegged Chief Liam (#5) too high on the morning line, since he's looking like a "wise guy" pick in this race as he makes his second start off the layoff. He didn't do much running in his return, but he had performed better routing last winter at Oaklawn and should improve here. My top pick is Toga Dan (#6), who cuts back slightly from a series of 1 1/8 miles attempts at Saratoga. He obviously improved with more ground, but he's only tried two extremes so far in his career, never having run a distance between 6 1/2 furlongs and 9 furlongs. He faced an awfully tough rival in Iron Dome last time and was hardly disgraced, traveling well to the quarter pole before flattening out. I think a mile will be perfect for him, and he's developed more tactical speed over his last few starts, so I don't think he'll be significantly outrun in the early stages.

Fair Value:
#6 TOGA DAN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

The scratch of Orgonite opens this race up, because I'm not thrilled with Dirand (#9), who will likely inherit the favorite's role. He was closer to the pace than Orgonite in that Aug. 28 race last time, but he also lacked Orgonite's late kick, getting nailed by that rival for third in the late stages. I was hoping to see more of a step forward for this horse, who did run well when just missing two back. He's a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Mile winner Uni, and I wonder if the added ground he's getting will suit him. Vintage Vino (#10) has had more chances than some others in this field, but he obviously handles the distance. He was compromised by a moderate pace that held together going too short last time. I don't love the post position for either of these horses, but this one should rebound. My top pick is Operation Overlord (#7), who got an interesting trip that same Aug. 28 race that a few of these are exiting. He actually broke with speed but was taken in hand as multiple horses sent for the front end through some honest early fractions. He settled well and had decent position through the middle of the race. However, he got mildly shuffled back to the quarter pole, and seemed to get discouraged along the inside into the lane. He was out of contention by that point, but he nevertheless found another gear in the last eighth, picking up his stride to finish with good energy across the wire. Based on that performance, I think he has more speed than he showed that day, and I expect Kendrick Carmouche to send him forward here in a potentially paceless race.

Fair Value:
#7 OPERATION OVERLORD, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 3

The scratch of Stolen Base makes this race a bit less appealing, since he was a potential favorite that I was squarely against. I do respect the venerable 9-year-old Amundson (#4), and he belongs at this level at this stage of his career. He had a chance to win last time and finished second without much excuse, but he is obviously a player once again. You just won't get much of a price on him after the scratch. Brew Pub (#6) is moving back up in class after easily winning a $12,500 claimer last time, but he has back class at this level and may be back in solid form right now for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Lost in Rome (#1) is one of the few class droppers in this field, but he might be getting back down to the right level, considering that he was claimed for just $20k back in June. He's getting a rider upgrade for this, and should appreciate the slight turnback in distance at this point in his career. My top pick is Thrill of It (#8), who finished behind Amundson at this level last time. Yet I thought this gelding was somewhat compromised by the race flow that day, as the fractions were color-coded blue in TimeformUS and the speeds dominated the race. He actually finished well for third, and he might have needed that start off a brief freshening. Now he's putting races back to back again, and might finally be ready to return to the winner's circle now that he's found a home at this lower level.

Fair Value:
#8 THRILL OF IT, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

The major players in this starter allowance exit the Sep. 12 race at this level which featured a controversial incident at the sixteenth pole. Ranger Battalion (#5) is the horse that was fouled in the late stages, and he figures to take money here given the obvious trouble last time. I don't know if he was winning that last race before he got steadied, but he was certainly cost a position. He proved that he can handle a mile, but even if he had been successful in that spot he would have done so with a very good trip and setup. I think others are more appealing this time. House United (#2) arguably ran the better race, chasing wide every step of the way. The stewards blamed him for the deep stretch bumping, which I can understand. Regardless, he's a contender right back in this spot, but I don't like that he's finished second three times in a row at short prices. Perhaps the added distance will work for Social Hour (#3), who did run a decent race in his lone attempt going this far, chasing home the superior My Mitole last fall. He's improved in recent starts for Rick Dutrow and should have a chance to attain forward position here. My top pick is Golden Symphony (#1), who makes his first start off the claim for Tom Morley. This barn does a fantastic job with this move, going 10 for 44 (23%, $2.75 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the last 5 years. He has achieved his best speed figures against weaker company, but he has run his best races when able to show speed in the past, and he figures to get an aggressive ride from the rail under Ruben Silvera here. I like that he's confidently moved up in class despite running poorly in his last race. I don't see a ton of speed in this race. He's a horse who once showed potential, and he may now be ready to move forward in a new barn.

Fair Value:
#1 GOLDEN SYMPHONY, at 6-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Laughing Lady (#4) would be dangerous if able to get back to some of her prior dirt races. She was very disappointing off the claim for Rob Falcone last time, but she was off to a poor start and never seemed to be getting over that sloppy track. She takes the blinkers off looking to rebound. My top pick at a bigger price is Sabby Sunset (#8), who returns to this circuit after closing for second at Finger Lakes last time. She's a little hard to like off that race, but I'm more interested in her prior form. She got a tough trip two back when hung wide all the way out of the Wilson Chute, a tough trip over that configuration at Saratoga. Prior to that she had shown speed in some quick paces going farther than this. I think she's always been more of a sprinter, and I like her turning back in distance on this circuit. She can factor here with routine improvement on some of the speed figures she ran last winter.

Fair Value:
#8 SABBY SUNSET, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this Jockey Club Derby, but I can't say that I'm crazy about either of his runners in here. Hill Road (#4) did handle the switch back to turf last time in the Nashville Derby, and that was surely a tougher spot than this even though he's technically moving up to a Grade 2 here. I just didn't think he did that much running to get up for third, as he just rode the rail and picked up pieces while never a threat to the top two. Asbury Park (#2) is more appealing to me. He was impressively breaking his maiden at Saratoga before disappointing at short prices in his next two starts. Yet he didn't get the right trip two back, and last time just ran out of ground in the Saranac. He is bred to handle this distance. I just want to go in a different direction with a horse that may get somewhat overlooked. Hammerhead (#5) has struggled during this 3-year-old season, and obviously wasn't ready for graded stakes company when thrown into the Transylvania and American Turf this past spring. Since returning to the Kevin Attard barn, he didn't get ideal trips in either allowance race at Woodbine, making a wide early move on June 21 before costing himself a victory when lugging in on Aug. 3. He then tried a mile on that inner turf course last time and was always too far back before getting steadied just as he was commencing a rally in upper stretch. He's better than he looks, and he has pedigree to handle longer distances. It also doesn't hurt to pick up Joel Rosario given some of the trips he's gotten.

Fair Value:
#5 HAMMERHEAD, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 5

Devilish Grin (#3) obviously makes a lot of sense in this maiden optional claimer, dropping out of the P. G. Johnson at Saratoga where she finished a decent third behind Time to Dream. She proved that she can handle added distance, staying on gamely to finish well clear of the rest but no match for the top two. This drop in class makes her the one to beat, but there are other intriguing options to consider. One of those is Pan Pan (#9), who also finished third behind Time to Dream in that filly's debut victory. Pan Pan was up close to a moderate pace that day, but she never saw the rail and did well to keep battling on, obviously appreciating the switch to grass. She now gets back on that preferred surface, and should be a better price. My top pick is Rose Lisa (#5), who makes her second start after running a lot better than it looks in her Saratoga debut. She broke from the far outside post and had to be used early to get position. However, she still got caught 3-wide into the clubhouse turn and was basically stuck out there for the entire race. She actually did well to maintain forward position all the way into the stretch before fading from her exertions. That was a race that featured a fast pace which came apart, as we just saw fellow pace player Maria Callas come back to win her next start on Thursday. I'm expecting improvement.

Fair Value:
#5 ROSE LISA, at 5-1 or greater
#9 PAN PAN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

The two fastest fillies in terms of speed figures in this Frizette both impressed during the Saratoga meet, but now must prove that they can carry their brilliant speed over a mile. Iron Orchard (#6) won both starts up at the Spa, looking obviously superior to the New York-bred and auction-restricted foes that she defeated in those races. She won by decisive margins that could have been even larger had she not been geared down in the final sixteenths of each race. Yet now she's stepping up against tougher foes and stretching out. She's dangerous, but she's not the type of horse that I want at a short price. The same is true for fellow short price Carmel Coast (#2), who busted out of the gate and never looked back in her Saratoga debut. Yet she looked like more of a sprinter to me that day, and I'll be mildly surprised if she is quite as effective going longer, especially drawn inside of so much other speed. I actually prefer the filly who finished behind Carmel Coast in that debut. Lovely Christina (#11) came back to win her next start 21 days later, fighting off multiple challenges to pull clear at 6 furlongs. She's another who has to answer the distance questions, but we have seen progeny of Vekoma stretch out. She is at least drawn outside of other speed, so she should have a better opportunity to get into a comfortable rhythm. I do think there's a chance for this race to come apart. That would help longshot Rina's Revenge (#4), who only beat New York-breds in her lone start. Yet she did it professionally, closing from well back to pull clear with authority in the late stages. She's bred to love added ground, as a half-sister to dirt route winners Call Her Bluff and King's Leap. My top pick won't be as big of a price as that one, but is a more likely winner. Five Bars (#9) didn't get much of a speed figure for her debut victory at Saratoga, but she did it like a horse with stakes potential. She got absolutely slammed between rivals at the start, checking sharply back to last. Most horses who experience that much adversity at the break of their first starts never recover, but she found her stride and got back into the race. She put in a terrific rally between horses to get up for the win. The pace did benefit her, but she still did it like a horse who was simply superior to her competition on that occasion. She's as convincing as anyone in this field for the stretch-out in distance, and she should get a fair pace ahead of her once again.

Fair Value:
#9 FIVE BARS, at 3-1 or greater
#4 RINA'S REVENGE, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7

No one can beat It's Our Time (#6) if he runs back to his stellar debut victory. Yet it's not always guaranteed that horses who put forth such massive efforts on debut will run as well when they return for their second starts. Tom Amoss had a fantastic summer with his 2-year-olds, and is generally underrated with his first time starters. Yet he's just 2 for 22 (9%, $0.62 ROI) with last-out 2-year-old debut winners in their second starts. I also have some concerns about how far this horse wants to go, since he has more of a sprint pedigree and doesn't necessarily look like a horse who is supposed to get better with added ground. He could regress and still win this race, but I wanted to consider other options given his likely short price. Talkin (#9) ran well to win his debut going 7 furlongs at Saratoga, showing good speed before coming under a hard ride around the half-mile pole. He had to work to maintain his position on the far turn, but he continued to respond to urging in the stretch, eventually pushing past today's rival Stradale (#2). Talkin ran like a horse who should handle the distance, and he's drawn well outside of the other speed. His 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is only 11 points off that of the favorite. That was the faster division of two maiden races on that Aug. 30 card, but I prefer the winner of the slower race. Universe (#3) upset the field at 17-1 on debut. He probably beat a weaker group overall, but I really liked the way he accomplished it. He didn't break the sharpest, but quickly moved up along the inside to race keenly behind the leaders. That was a strong pace for distance, and he had no trouble keeping up before angling around the leaders in upper stretch. Once he saw daylight, he ran clear to a dominant win, giving every impression that he would relish more distance. The third and fifth-place finishers from that maiden race have since returned to improve their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 14 and 26 points, respectively.

Fair Value:
#3 UNIVERSE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

I had initially been willing to take a stand against Waralo (#6) here due to him being drawn between two main pace rivals. Yet now that the fast breaking Nothing Better has scratched, the pace complexion has significantly changed. Now Waralo is drawn directly outside of one other speed rival, and these two could dominate up front. Waralo has run faster and gained newfound consistency since switching over to grass. It is hard to keep winning as you move through allowance conditions, with each race getting tougher than the last. However, I really like the grit that he's displayed through his recent victories, really digging in to maintain a winning advantage when challenged in the late stages of his last two starts. I don't think he's a need the lead type, and I imagine Joel Rosario will be content to stalk before taking over. I believe he's the most likely winner and might offer value at his expected price. The other horse likely to take money here, Big Invasion (#3), would benefit from a quick pace. I do think there's a real question about whether he's still nearly as good now as he was in the past couple of seasons. He disappointed towards the end of last year, and was pretty dull in his return last time at Saratoga. He is getting class relief here, but I still don't fully trust him. Step Forward (#1) should sit a good trip stalking along the rail. He finished ahead of Big Invasion in the Disco Partner, and figures to be a better price than that foe. He's come back into decent form recently, and rarely gets as much respect as his form merits. I still have some interest in Alder (#2), who cuts back from a series of one-mile races in Kentucky. The pace just doesn't look quite as friendly to him without Nothing Better in here. Alder broke from a tough post position last time at Kentucky Downs, and was stuck 4-wide without cover for much of the race. He made a middle move into contention before flattening out behind a talented winner. This horse did sprint effectively earlier in his career, and he's only had limited opportunities to do so on turf. I'll bet him if he's a fair price and primarily use him with Waralo.

Fair Value:
#2 ALDER, at 6-1 or greater
#6 WARALO, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 11

None of the favorites in this first-level allowance scare me much. Risk Tolerance (#3) got such a perfect trip when he made his debut here over a year ago, and then was overbet when drawing a wide post at Saratoga next time. Something obviously went awry after that, but he figures to take money in his return and I'm still not convinced that he's anything special. I'm a little more interested in Chad's other horse Main Beach (#10), who had to angle pretty wide making his run last time in a race dominated by inside runners. He takes the blinkers back off and has prior races that give him a big chance here. That race's pacesetter Irish Gent (#5) could also take money, but he got such a good trip last time and I'm not as confident that he'll run as well here in a race that features more pace. I'm taking a shot against these with Pass the Hat (#9), who gets on turf for the first time. I've been waiting for this colt to get a chance on the grass even though he's a half-brother to dirt sprinter Nashville. He's by Collected, who has turned into a deceptively strong turf influence, getting 16% turf route winners. He ran his best race over a sloppy, sealed track, which is often indicative of a horse with turf inclination. He also looks and moves more like a turf horse. I know Bill Mott has historically not done great with these types of surface switches, but he is 3 for his last 7 ($6.51 ROI) with non-maidens trying turf for the first time.

Fair Value:
#9 PASS THE HAT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 12

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Peak Hype (#11), who had a legitimate excuse last time out. The pace failed to develop in that nine-furlong allowance, and she found herself at the back of the pack, checking badly into the clubhouse turn as the pace slowed to a crawl. She put in quite a run to get up for fourth with that trip, especially given that the pace mostly held together. She drew poorly here, but she's supposed to get a better setup with a few speed rivals signed on. I'm also a little interested in Phoenix of Wit (#4), who I'll use with the favorite. She has some things to prove shipping up from Florida, but she was visually impressive breaking her maiden last time. She did get a good trip in that race, but is still underexposed on turf, having gotten rained off twice as a two-year-old. I just think Peak Hype is a much more likely winner.

Fair Value:
#11 PEAK HYPE, at 8-5 or greater