TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Sunday, May 11
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 2
None of the entrants look particularly formidable in this conditioned claimer, and I especially didn't want to settle for a short price on Focus Pocus (#1). Her speed obviously makes her dangerous, especially with the way the track has been playing lately. She's just very fainthearted and is unlikely to fight back if she gets any kind of challenge. There are a few runners in here who can apply pressure, the most appealing of which is Daneel (#2). She's shown subtle improvement for her current trainer, and I don't mind her stretching back out in distance. I'm going to hope the pace is at least honest, since Brooklyn Dantz (#5) is the kind of horse I want to take on the drop in class. She usually needs a setup, since she lacks early speed. However, I was at least encouraged that she was more forward through the opening furlongs last time before losing ground on the turn. She tends to stay on decently in her races against tougher company, and now she's just dropping down to the level at which she belongs.
Fair Value:
#5 BROOKLYN DANTZ, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
It might be a fool's errand trying to beat Runamor (#3) in this spot, since he absolutely towers over this field based on his last couple of efforts. Yet he's going to be an extremely short price, and he failed to get the job done as an odds-on favorite last time, defeated by a horse who looked inferior on paper. I don't love that he's claimed away from Linda Rice, and I wonder about him taking the blinkers off given his propensity to lug in. The only alternative that speaks to me is No More Sins (#7), who arguably has the most upside of anyone in his second career start. James Ryerson runners almost never win on debut, and he fares much better with second time starters. Furthermore, I really think this horse will appreciate some added ground. He was very slow into stride on debut but was at least staying on late while failing to make an impact. He has a pretty nice pedigree for a horse who only sold for $1,000 at auction, and he also moves like a horse that wants to go route distances, with big, loping strides. He needs to step forward considerably if he's to reel in the favorite, but he should be a square price.
Fair Value:
#7 NO MORE SINS, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 6
One of the most intriguing horses running on this entire Sunday card is Tazara (#5), who makes her North American debut for Chad Brown. This filly really came to hand toward the end of her 3-year-old season in France, upsetting an open stakes on turf at 14-1 before holding her own against Group 3 company when last seen in October. She was subsequently purchased at auction by Resolute Racing for the U.S. equivalent of $792k. Notably, she was sent to the front end in those recent starts overseas, and she seems to perform best when able to race prominently. However, early speed in Europe doesn't always translate to forward position in America, so it will be interesting to see what kind of trip she pulls in her U.S. debut. Her best effort beats this field, but she figures to be a pretty short price. Creed's Gold (#7) looks pretty logical after twice hitting the board at this level in Florida and Kentucky. She's a confirmed turf sprinter who has shown the versatility to stretch out to a mile, so I wouldn't worry at all about her getting this 6-furlong distance. She possesses good tactical speed and is coming off her best effort to date. She just comes in with exposed form attracting Irad, so she probably won't be an interesting price. Weekend Rags (#3) seems like a candidate to bounce back into form as she returns to the New York circuit. She didn't run that badly in a couple of stakes attempts down in Florida, but the 5-furlong distance of those races is probably a bit too short for her. She fits well here, but just has to avoid getting outrun in the early stages. My top pick is Cara's Time (#2), who makes her turf debut in the 16th start of her career. There really wasn't any reason to try grass with her early on since she ran so well on dirt during her 2-year-old season. She's struggled with consistency since then, but she's still capable of producing some big efforts when she's able to attain forward position. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be contesting the pace in a scenario favoring frontrunners. Cara's Time obviously has to transfer her form to turf, but Not This Time is an excellent 16% turf sprint sire, and there is some turf going back into her female family. I'm also encouraged that she ran two of the best races of her career on sealed racetracks. Ruben Silvera is the right jockey to deliver an aggressive ride.
Fair Value:
#2 CARA'S TIME, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 8
I believe Be of Courage (#3) is the most talented horse in this field, and should win if he's ready to fire a decent effort off the layoff. That is the primary concern, since he missed most of turf season in 2024 after prematurely going to the sidelines in May. Yet he has been working for a long time going all the way back to the end of last year, so I'm not too concerned about fitness. He is a horse that ran well off a layoff in April last season, and he put in a very strong effort in his following, most recent start in May. He didn't get any pace to close into, and still made a strong late run despite going wide on the far turn. I like him getting reunited with Ruben Silvera, who has ridden him well in the past, and he may not be the favorite he deserves to be based on talent due to the time away. Main rival Born Dancer (#9) could have a tactical advantage over that rival, but he's also returning from a layoff, albeit a shorter one. He really blossomed in the second half of last season, but Michelle Nevin is a trainer whose horses sometimes need a start in their returns. Gem Mint Ten (#7) is perhaps the more dangerous forward runner, since he tends to run his best races when he can get forward in spots that lack much early pace. I just worry he won't be much of a price picking up Irad Ortiz here.
Fair Value:
#3 BE OF COURAGE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
This finale looks pretty wide open. I suppose My Anticipation (#9) is the one to beat based on her turf sprint performance two back in Florida. She did get a fast pace ahead of her on that occasion and the race was starting to fall apart, but she still put in a strong late run from far back to just miss. She wasn't as effective last time trying to close up the rail, but it's tough to come from that far back over that Gulfstream course going 5 furlongs. She figures to be better suited by this slight stretch-out, but she has to avoid giving away so much ground early in her races. There are also plenty of first time turfers to consider. The one with the best turf pedigree is Fire's Out (#3), by good grass influence Flameaway out of a dam who produced full-sibling Dreamfyre, a Grade 3 turf winner. I do wonder if this filly will ultimately want to go farther than 6 furlongs, but she's not catching the toughest field for her turf debut and trainer Jorge Duarte does well with these types off layoffs. I also have some interest in Cahira's Song (#2), who has more recency and possesses some pedigree to switch surfaces, with Midshipman being an excellent turf sprint influence. I have some questions about her overall quality, but she figures to be an enticing price and I do believe she will appreciate turf. My top pick is first time starter Sugar Run (#5). Mark Hennig isn't known for firing with firsters in turf sprints, but everything else about this filly points her out as a candidate to excel in this spot. She has a nice pedigree for these conditions. Twirling Candy does very well with debut runners and turf horses, and her dam earned both career victories on turf, producing her best efforts in turf sprints. I really like the way this filly has trained for her debut in Florida, and she moves like a horse that will relish getting on the grass. It seems encouraging that Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount and she figures to get dismissed at a decent price.
Fair Value:
#5 SUGAR RUN, at 5-1 or greater
#2 CAHIRA'S SONG, at 10-1 or greater
Saturday, May 10
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Ten Cent Town (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat after running so well at this level last time. The early pace was contested and he did well to put away the other speeds before getting run down by a closer. His pace-upgraded 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a standout in this field, and he might have just really improved second off the layoff. I view him as the most likely winner, but he figures to be a short price here. There is a ton of speed in this race, and Acoustic Ave (#5) should sit a good trip perched just off the early speed. He is making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but it is mildly concerning that he appeared to tail off without much of an excuse last time. Another horse who could sit a good trip is Heavyweight Champs (#6). I have to imagine that Rudy Rodriguez will be looking to rate him just off the speeds from this far outside post, especially since he has a speed uncoupled stablemate in the race. Heavyweight Champs has to prove that he can produce a top effort without getting the early lead, but I was encouraged by how game he was last time. He battled for the lead from the inside and never gave up even when passed in the stretch. He has improved in each start since returning from a layoff this winter and can take another step forward here.
Fair Value:
#6 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
I'm not keen to back either favorite in this first-level allowance. Quick to Accuse (#4) is the horse to beat based on that effort going this distance two back. However, he was in the Brad Cox barn then, and he regressed a bit first off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio last time. It remains to be seen if he can hold that form or if he turns back into the horse that he had been prior to that race in March. Main rival Keewaydin (#3) has even more questions to answer as he returns from a layoff. He showed talent during his 2-year-old season, but he was pretty disappointing when they tried to stretch him out in the Remsen. I also have some concerns about the strength of that maiden victory in October, as the runner-up returned to regress and there wasn't much else in that field. I wish he was coming back going a slightly shorter distance than this. My top pick is Hero's Medal (#6), who makes his second start off a layoff for Linda Rice. He met some tough fields when he was rounding back into his best form through the early part of last year before going to the sidelines. His return effort doesn't look too encouraging on paper, but he actually showed some decent tactical speed before dropping back on the turn. He was starting to stay on late, and then was geared down in the final sixteenth. Linda Rice did enter him in some weaker spots since then, but I like that she's now entered him in a protected race at the same level.
Fair Value:
#6 HERO'S MEDAL, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9
DRF's Dave Grening reports that Bunratty Manor (#1) and Serving Time (#9) will scratch from this race to run in the Mamzelle at Churchill, while the other cross-entered horses will race here. That doesn't make things much easier for handicappers, as it is still a wide open affair. Cherie DeVaux's other runner Hey Bertie (#8) is probably the horse to beat as she looks to keep her undefeated record intact. She was pretty impressive closing from off the pace to get the job done at Fair Grounds last time in her first turf start. She's got a strong pedigree behind her and doesn't have to be rated as far off the pace as she was last time. She makes plenty of sense, but looks pretty obvious in a wide open race. Lovely Emma (#7) looks like the controlling speed as she returns from a layoff. I think her connections were wise to choose this spot over the Mamzelle because she should get her preferred trip up on the front end. She was game to just miss at Keeneland last fall and then registered a powerful victory at Fair Grounds to break her maiden. She appears to be training well for the return. I wish there was a little more pace signed on for Disco Star (#3), who should appreciate switching back to turf. Given how well she performed on dirt last time, it's possible that she's stepped forward as a 3-year-old, and she had already achieved a competitive turf sprint speed figure during her juvenile season. She just doesn't possess any early speed, and there's a dearth of pace in this race. I do think it's notable that AE entrant Warming (#11) draws into the field, and with that news I want to upgrade her. She had been impressive on debut last summer, beating a field that’s proven to be pretty strong in retrospect. Runner-up Good Long Cry continued to improve throughout last season, and fourth-place finisher Abientot went onto win the Matron on turf. Warming earned a solid 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that win, and can certainly factor here with any routine improvement from that performance. She goes out for a trainer who is one of the best in the game off long layoffs, and she may get somewhat overlooked drawing into the main body of the field.
Fair Value:
#11 WARMING, at 5-1 or greater
#7 LOVELY EMMA, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 10
I do believe My Mane Squeeze (#10) is a deserving favorite in this Ruffian. I had thought she was mildly interesting in a much tougher Derby City Distaff last weekend, but that was a race where she figured to fly under the radar. She's in the spotlight in this Ruffian based on a series of strong efforts in graded stakes company going all the way back to last spring. She ran deceptively well to finish second in a forwardly dominated Raven Run in her 3-year-old finale. She then ran well off the layoff in the G1 Madison, making a wide move before flattening out. I don't mind her stretching out to a mile too much, and she will be tough if she moves forward second off the layoff. Another New York-bred Sterling Silver (#4) also merits strong consideration. She has been facing softer state-bred company in recent starts, but has maintained admirable consistency during that time. She did well to almost beat a track bias two back, and is also making her second start off a layoff now. My top pick is Gun Song (#9), who was pretty disappointing in her 4-year-old debut last time at Gulfstream. Yet she had a right to need that race following a layoff, and it was also reported that she came out of the race with some foot issues. She has been given ample time since then and returns showing a series of improved workouts. She had really improved in the second half of last season, earning a few TimeformUS Speed Figures that make her one of the horses to beat in this spot. Those were two-turn races, but I actually don't mind her sticking with a slightly shorter distance here. She's also drawn well outside of her main pace rivals.
Fair Value:
#9 GUN SONG, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 11
The two horses likely to attract the most support in this Peter Pan both made brief appearances on the Kentucky Derby trail. Captain Cook (#8) attracted some buzz following his victory in the Withers this winter, and Hill Road (#4) looked like a horse set up for a forward move following his seasonal debut in the Tampa Bay Derby. However, the former came back to disappoint in his final prep, and the latter missed his completely after getting sick. Now both are trying to get back on track to prove they deserve a chance to step up against the best 3-year-olds in this division. Captain Cook's advantage in this Peter Pan is early speed, which Hill Road notably lacks. Manny Franco should be able to make the lead aboard the Rick Dutrow trainee given a general lack of pace entered in this 9-furlong affair. Yet Captain Cook still has to prove that he can get the 9-furlong distance against this level of competition. Hill Road still has upside after getting compromised by slow paces and still closing for third in both prior U.S. starts. He just has had trouble building momentum given the gaps in training after those races, and now he catches another race in which the pace may not develop to his liking. Some will consider the Todd Pletcher pair, but I'm not thrilled with either of his horses. Vassimo (#1) might be dangerous if he gets a particularly aggressive ride, but it's unclear if he's quick enough to contest the pace. Uncaged (#6) took advantage of a fast pace last time and has to prove that he can race as effectively over a dry track. My top pick is Surfside Moon (#3). This horse couldn't catch Captain Cook when they met in the Withers back in February, but that was still an encouraging performance for an improving colt. He had endured a tough trip in his lone prior dirt route attempt in the Laurel Futurity, and came into this season looking like a horse with plenty of upside. Unfortunately, he got sick after the Withers and missed some training, which took him off the Kentucky Derby trail. He returned with an abbreviated worktab in the Federico Tesio, and ran pretty well to finish third despite regressing slightly. He had a right to need that race and should be set for a better performance here in his second start off the layoff. He did display improved tactical speed last time, so I'm hopeful that he can work out the right stalking trip.
Fair Value:
#3 SURFSIDE MOON, at 9-2 or greater
