TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

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RACE 1

The day's opener is full of questions. Those with form all have much to prove at this level, which might lead some to consider first time starters. Phil Antonacci has unveiled a few live firsters over the last couple of seasons, including a maiden claiming winner on turf at this meet. No Filter (#1) has taken a while to get to the races, not debuting until the end of his 4-year-old season, and perhaps that's why he's risked for a tag on debut. This gelding is a half-brother to the graded stakes-winning sprinter Havnameltdown, so he's bred to be quick. Among those with experience, Sergeant Capps (#5) is the one to beat based on his last couple of efforts against maiden claimers. He held his form reasonably well first off the claim for Wayne Potts last time and will be tough with a similar effort here. It's just hard to take a short price on a horse who is 0 for 17 lifetime. My top pick is Sports Hero (#4), who finished behind that rival when they met on Aug. 17 at Saratoga. While I don't love that he's exiting some top barns, I do find the claim by James Ryerson intriguing for the sheer fact that this barn seldom claims horses. Sports Hero's recent dirt form is not nearly as bad as it looks. He got a terrible trip on June 22 at Churchill Downs, steadying repeatedly down the backstretch. Then last time he was ridden very conservatively by Jose Ortiz, making him look worse than he is. This is an appropriate level for him, and it's a much softer field than last time.

Fair Value:
#4 SPORTS HERO, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 2

Brave Buck (#4) is arguably the horse to beat as he steps up in class to the N3L conditioned claiming level. It's just hard to know what to make off the layoff into this race given that he was a voided claim when last seen in July at Saratoga. There was obviously some issue to keep him away from the races, and Linda Rice elects not to try a tougher spot despite the fact that he's earned solid speed figures in two of his last three starts. Main rival My Man Matty (#7) is also not the easiest horse to trust given his prior inconsistency, but at least he's coming off a solid recent effort last month. I do think this $17,500 claimer is tougher than the last one he tried, but he's still a contender. Dads Good Runner (#1) is mildly interesting off the claim for Wayne Potts, who doesn't do great with this move but certainly wins more races than his prior trainer. This horse had gotten back into decent form earlier this summer before skipping the Saratoga meet. He got in a prep last time against tougher, and now drops in class back down to the conditioned claiming ranks. My top pick is Complex Music (#5), who makes his first local start for Amira Chichackly. She couldn't have had this horse for very long, as he just ran at Churchill a month ago and only shows one local workout prior to this start. He didn't run as badly as the result might appear in that first start off the claim for this owner at Churchill, chasing an honest pace along the rail before losing momentum when stymied inside in upper stretch. He's almost surely better going shorter anyway, and now he drops to an appropriate level and turns back to the right distance. The rider upgrade to Sahin Civaci certainly doesn't hurt.

Fair Value:
#5 COMPLEX MUSIC, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 3

Louise Proctor (#5) is the likely favorite in this first-level allowance optional claimer, and might bet down even shorter than I have her on the morning line given how much money Flavien Prat has been attracting in recent days. She's definitely a top contender, but she has disappointed a few times at short prices since coming to this country. This is a barn that is supposed to win when it gets bet with these types. She hasn't gotten ideal trips a couple of times, compromised by a moderate pace two back at Saratoga, and then being forced to make a wide rally last time in a race dominated up front. The big question for me is the added distance, since she wasn't campaigned overseas as if there was intent to stretch her out to 1 3/16 miles. Poca Mucha (#4) is the class of this field, dropping out of tougher spots as one of just two runners in for the optional $50k tag. She didn't finish that far behind the likes of stakes quality rivals such as Ozara and Tax Implications in her last two starts at Saratoga. However, she was also never a serious threat in either of those races, and her speed figures might be slightly inflated by the company she's kept. She's logical, but I wouldn't want to take too short a price on a 7-year-old mare who hasn't won on turf in over 3 years. After the scratch of my original top pick, I want to upgrade Siyouni Flash (#6). I typically would be skeptical of a horse coming off a maiden win stepping up against winners, but she isn't catching the toughest field for this level. I also thought she ran very well to break her maiden last time, putting forth a better effort than the nose margin of victory would suggest. She never saw the rail in that three-turn affair, going 3-wide around most turns while spending a good deal of the race advancing outside without cover. She still finished gamely to find an extra gear to put away a decent foe. This is a tougher assignment, but she handle the distance, which is a question for some others in here.

Fair Value:
#6 SIYOUNI FLASH, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Tongue Twister (#3) is probably the horse to beat as she takes another crack at this state-bred first-level allowance, but I'm starting to get tired of her piling up losses at relatively short prices. She has had her fair share of tough trips in the past, but she had no excuse last time when she got to save ground and was still unable to hold off a closer late. She's logical but I thought others offered better value. Another horse from that Sep. 21 race that intrigues me is Clearwater Beach (#5). This filly had shown some affinity for turf when she first got on the surface at Woodbine this summer, and her connections wisely sent her to New York to take advantage of her state-bred status on this surface. However, the trip didn't work out at all when she tried this level last time. She got bumped back to last at the start, which wasn't the worst thing to happen in a race that featured some pace. Yet she then launched an ill-advised 4-wide run around the far turn, moving too soon while losing ground. She did well to finish fourth in a race from which the others coming back here all saved ground. I'm using her, but my top pick should be a bigger price. Hello Beauty (#6) broke her maiden on dirt last time, but she's obviously more of a turf horse. She had some pedigree to handle the dirt, but she won that race based on class rather than affinity for the dirt surface. She had gotten some less than ideal trips in her prior turf starts against maidens. The only time she faced New York-breds on grass in August, she raced out of position throughout and was closing too late in a race won from the front end. Then two back she was wide throughout in a race dominated by rail runners. She's better than she looks, and I like that Kendrick Carmouche retains the mount after riding her with so much confidence last time.

Fair Value:
#6 HELLO BEAUTY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

Likely favorite Spiced Up (#6) will probably beat this field if he runs back to his Mahony-winning performance two back at Saratoga. Yet that is the only race in his past performances that makes him particularly formidable here. I'm generally willing to forgive horses for failing to show up at Kentucky Downs, but he was very disappointing in the Franklin-Simpson, and I'm reluctant to make too many excuses for a short-priced favorite. I see two intriguing alternatives. Cairo Caper (#8) has primarily been focusing on longer races this year, but I like him turning back to a sprint here. He handled shorter distances effectively as a two-year-old, and he's been making middle moves before flattening out in his recent starts around two turns. He actually ran a lot better than it looks in the Saranac last time after going wide on the second turn. This is the right spot for him, but I'm worried he could get another wide trip from this post position. My top pick is Out On Bail (#1), who tried cutting back last time in the Franklin-Simpson after he was stretched out in the Penn Mile this summer. He actually ran deceptively well in the Penn National race, and he had a right to need his return last time. The Kentucky Downs effort was pretty good considering that he chased a fast pace that came apart and did so while never seeing the rail. I like him getting back to a sprint over a flat course, and he drew well inside with tactical speed.

Fair Value:
#1 OUT ON BAIL, at 7-2 or greater
#8 CAIRO CAPER, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7

I suppose Tax Implications (#7) can win this race, but I've never been her biggest fan, and she's disappointed more often than not when trying stakes company. These connections should ensure an underlaid price on her, and I want to look elsewhere. Aussie Girl (#2) might be the horse to beat based on her 4-year-old form upon coming to the U.S. and into the barn of Will Walden. She ran well to beat the stakes-quality Saffron Moon at Keeneland last year, and then was hardly disgraced in the Grade 1 Matriarch after chasing an honest pace. I won't hold her dirt try against her, and now she's returning from a layoff for a barn that can have them ready to fire fresh. Her main pace rival Edict (#3) did run a race that makes her competitive here last time, but she did so with a perfect trip. These two should vie for early command a sneaky pace player could also be the South American import Coni Fizz (#4), who won her last race in gate-to-wire fashion in Argentina. I'm just skeptical that she'll be ready to produce her best effort in her North American debut. My top pick is Feather Boa (#6), who returns from a long layoff to make just her second start in nearly two years. This former South African runner kept some good company in her homeland, chasing home U.S. graded stakes winner Gimme a Nother in her final South African start. Yet the race that really gets me interested in her is that lone U.S. start in September 2024. She got no pace to close into in that 6-furlong sprint, and was outrun through the early stages turning back in a race that was probably supposed to function as a prep. Despite having the race flow against her, she put in a terrific stretch kick to just miss getting up for the victory. She handled a mile without issue previously, and Todd Pletcher can have horses ready off layoffs.

Fair Value:
#6 FEATHER BOA, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Acoustic Ave (#3) will obviously be tough to beat if he runs back to his last couple of efforts against tougher company. He won a high-level allowance two back at Saratoga, and followed that up with a narrow less against the likes of stakes-quality stablemate El Grande O last time. This starter allowance is a drop in class for him, but it's no guarantee that he will hold his form coming back just 9 days after a hard effort. Goodasiwonswas (#1) looks like the main rival on paper as he makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He finished fourth in a highly competitive allowance event last time at Saratoga and now attract Flavien Prat. I'm just a little concerned about the trip, with him drawing the rail in a race that doesn't feature much pace. My top pick is Barksdale (#6), who makes his second start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. It might look like he regressed for the new barn last time out, but he ran a lot better than it looks in that $50k claimer. He was contesting a fast pace that ultimately fell apart going a distance that has always been a little far for him. He still earned a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which puts him within range of the favorite. He's now cutting back to his preferred 6 furlongs, and is drawn well outside of his only serious pace rival.

Fair Value:
#6 BARKSDALE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

Double Your Money (#6) seems like a legitimate favorite as he steps down in class after trying the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup going 1 1/2 miles last time at Parx. He gave heavy favorite No Bien Ni Mal all he could handle that day, gamely battling to the wire while well clear of the rest. Distance doesn't seem to be an issue for this versatile runner, so the turnback shouldn't bother him. His consistency is admirable, but he has lost his fair share of races at short prices, and he is ridden by a jockey who hasn’t had much success on this circuit. Systemic Change (#3) is a little more appealing to me now that he appears to be back in top form since the claim by Ilkay Kantarmaci. He did well to close to victory going a one-turn mile last time in a race that didn't feature much pace. He's generally ben better around two turns, so stretching back out should suit him. My top pick is Love Me Not (#1), who has had limited chances to run around two turns on dirt in his career. He strikes me as a horse who should run all day, and he was facing a deeper field than this when he tried 9 furlongs at Colonial two back. Notably, that was a one-turn race where he got outrun to the lead and was never in the most comfortable position over the last quarter mile. I think he's best when he can control up front, and he should have the opportunity to do so here.

Fair Value:
#1 LOVE ME NOT, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

No one in this $20k starter allowance fits the race perfectly. Even likely favorite Jackson's Dixie (#6), who has kept the best company of anyone in this field, has some questions to answer stretching out to a mile. I would still regard her as the horse to beat, and she merits even more respect after showing improvement in her first start off the claim for Mike Miceli last time out. I've just always viewed her as more of a sprinter, and I'm skeptical she'll be at her best going this far. Pens Street (#1) should have no issues with the one-mile distance, but her running style has to be a concern. She lacks any early speed, and was badly outrun when she stepped up in class last time. It is a positive sign that she's claimed back by Linda Rice, who went back in for $40k after losing her for $16k. She did run her best recent race for Rice two back, and it's a good sign that she's now in a protected spot. My top pick is Baby Sassicaia (#2), who obviously has to get a little faster to beat this field. Yet she arguably has more upside than anyone else as a relatively lightly raced 4-year-old. If you can overlook that debacle two back at Parx, she's run well in both local starter allowance efforts since getting claimed by Antonio Arriaga. She held her own against Adrian and Purloin, who would be major players in a spot like this. She arguably could have gotten even closer to those foes last time with a better trip. She never had to steady, but she was locked behind horses in traffic for much of that race, only shaking free too late. That was her first start in a while with blinkers on, and I liked the way she traveled with that equipment. I'm expecting better here.

Fair Value:
#2 BABY SASSICAIA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

This starter allowance for fillies and mares on the turf is one of the most competitive races on the entire Saturday card. The main players appear to be pretty evenly matched, and it's tough to assess their relative form as they converge from a variety of class levels. Tour Jete (#2) seems most likely to go favored as she drops out of a tougher allowance optional claimer where she raced for a $75k tag. Winner Immensitude is a stakes-quality rival, and this filly was hardly disgraced finishing fifth behind her. She ran on well despite never seeing the rail until the field turned into the stretch for the final time. She's now making her second start off the claim for Fernando Abreu, but is 2 for his last 71 starters on the NYRA circuit. Fantasy Performer (#7) traded decisions with Tour Jete on Aug. 29 and Oct. 2, beating that rival at Saratoga before throwing in a poor effort over this Aqueduct track last time. She's clearly capable on her best day, but she's lacked consistency, and I think another in this field possess greater upside. My top pick is Tuck Check (#5), an improving 4-year-old filly who looks like she may be ready for another step forward. She hasn't competed at the higher allowance levels on this circuit, but she did meet some strong rivals when she tried the Violet Stakes at Monmouth two back. She stalked an honest pace, racing 2 to 3-wide without cover, and was still in the mix in upper stretch before fading. I think she's a little better when she gets held up early and produces a strong finish. Those were the tactics last time when she was risked for a $40k tag in her first Aqueduct start. While the trip seems uneventful on paper, she didn't settle very well early, made a couple of subtle moves in the race, and had to make an awkward maneuver in upper stretch to find a clear path. Despite her halting trip, she finished with a flourish in the final furlong to just miss. I think she can build on that effort here in her second local start for Lindsey Schultz, who has won with 3 of her last 6 starts on the NYRA circuit.

Fair Value:
#5 TUCK CHECK, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9

I don't fully trust Emirates Road (#6) to get back to the 105 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned when last seen in that blowout victory on Feb. 22. It was a significant improvement for him that was a little hard to predict based on his prior form. He obviously thrived in the Brad Cox barn, but I never like when horses go to the sidelines following a career-best effort. It remains to be seen if he'll be able to get back to that place again, and there's always the possibility than he'll need a start after missing so much time. Between the likely favorites, I prefer Light the Way (#9), who has been in great form since getting claimed by Linda Rice. If you throw out that July turf experiment, he's run competitively in all of his dirt starts for Rice, and recently has strung together the best efforts of his career. He wasn't even disgraced when finishing fifth in the Vosburgh last time after contesting the pace. He's arguably been best going a mile, though both of those victories at this distance did come out of that quirky Wilson Chute at Saratoga. Bramito (#4) has run a couple of recent speed figures that give him a big chance in this spot, including last time when beating a solid field of $50k claimers. He's won from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, so this distance should be perfect for him. I'm just not sure how much pace he's going to get, since there doesn't appear to be an abundance of early speed in here despite the large field. My top pick is Dr. Kraft (#3), who turns back to a one-turn mile after trying a series of two-turn affairs. He's won two in a row and has been improving all the time since getting claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. His last race was probably the best performance of his career, as he set an honest pace at Parx and never gave the hard-trying Double Your Money a chance to catch him. He's been freshened since that big effort, and should be primed for another strong performance here. His tactical speed should play well in this field.

Fair Value:
#3 DR. KRAFT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10

This $50k starter on turf is another competitive race that strangely doesn't feature much early speed despite drawing a large field. That should make Tut's Revenge (#2) particularly dangerous, since the Pace Projector identifies him as the primary speed from an advantageous inside post in a scenario favoring frontrunners. He had a legitimate excuse last time when cut off into the clubhouse turn, preventing him from getting to the lead. He generally runs best at this stage of his career when able to control the pace up front, and he should have that opportunity this time. Main rivals Risk Manager (#6) and Walley World (#10) both seem to fit this level quite well, but they each have to work out trips in this large, competitive field. Risk Manager has been in great form recently, but his lack of early speed is a minor concern for me. Walley World can attain better forward position, but he has to over come a tough outside post with this race starting from the chute. My top pick is Belouni (#1), who should sit a good rail-skimming trip. He doesn't have to be as far back as he was last time when he lost position in the early stages and then launched a 4-wide run on the far turn before flattening out. He's run plenty of prior races that would make him competitive with this bunch. He's now making his first start off the claim for Jorge Abreu, who is 14:4-3-1 ($2.89 ROI) with this move over the last 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 BELOUNI, at 9-2 or greater