TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Dropdowns are the theme in this $50k conditioned claimer. The two horses likely to vie for favoritism are both exiting races at tougher optional claiming levels. Leading Contender (#1) was only facing two rivals in an off the turf race last time, but he was beaten by a legitimate rival in Strapped who clearly wanted every bit of this 10-furlong distance. This horse can handle extended trips, too, but he was just making the second start off a lengthy layoff, and he visibly tired in the late stages. Now he's making his third start of the form cycle, and Chad Brown is dropping him into a realistic spot. He also could play out as the main speed from his inside post. Call Me Fast (#6) has the most back class of anyone in this field, having raced competitively in graded stakes company in the past. He has obviously tailed off lately, and really went the wrong way for Joe Sharp this winter. I think this class relief could potentially wake him up, but I don't love the 9-furlong distance since I have always had some stamina concerns with this horse. Mikealicious (#2) shouldn't mind the distance, but he's such a plodder so the lack of pace in this race could work against him. The same is true for my top pick Unbridled Bomber (#3), but he is getting more significant class relief than that foe. He was in a pretty salty first-level allowance last time and he again showed some signs of life, making a bid up the rail in upper stretch before flattening out. He held his own against a legitimate off the turf field two back, where he traveled like a potential winner before flattening out late. He's finally spotted at a realistic level for the first time since getting claimed by these connections, and should outrun his odds if he holds his form.

Fair Value:
#3 UNBRIDLED BOMBER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

The eight fillies entered for turf in this maiden special weight are evenly split between first time starters and runners with experience. The group of firsters is led by Embrace Time (#5), a $175k yearling purchase trained by Brad Cox. Her sire Not This Time wins with 18 percent of his juvenile first time starters, and gets 15 percent winners from all turf route starters. She also has pedigree for this surface on the dam's side, being out of a mare who achieved all four of her career victories routing on turf. Cox does well with these types, going 21 for 98 (21%, $2.25 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in turf routes over 5 years, according to DRF Formulator. I view her as the strongest of those making their debuts. Gorrono Ranch (#8) has the most experience of anyone in this field, but all of her three prior races have come on dirt. She tries grass for the first time while also stretching out off a series of sprints, but she does have pedigree for these changes. War of Will has proven to be a decent turf influence, and her second dam Mariel N Kathy was a stakes-winning turf horse. I prefer some horses who have already tried the turf. Matadora (#1) could go favored after finishing third in her debut on grass. That was a six-furlong affair, but she did stay on well for third behind a dominant winner, earning a respectable 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She also broke well and wanted to show speed before getting rated, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Irad Ortiz Jr. send her forward from this inside post. I'm just a little concerned about her pedigree for this added distance, since her unraced dam has primarily produced sprinters. My top pick is Connect the Stars (#7), who finished four lengths behind Matadora in that same Aqueduct maiden race on grass. She didn't take much money that day, going off at 23-1, and ran like a horse who probably needed the start. She broke outwardly from the gate and lacked early speed before staying on mildly at the end. Her rising TimeformUS Pace Figure line indicates that she was maintaining her momentum well relative to the race flow, a positive indicator for stretching out. Watching the replay after the wire, she also galloped out best of all into the turn. She's bred to appreciate added ground, out of a dam who won a stakes going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Mark Casse's two-year-olds tend to improve with a start under their belts, and I'm expecting this filly to take a step forward on Saturday.

Fair Value:
#7 CONNECT THE STARS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

Filly Freedom (#4) didn't take much money at all on debut in a race that featured plenty of strong pedigrees and appealing workouts. She just slipped through the cracks despite going out for a top barn, but she certainly ran better than expectations. She always traveled well in behind the leaders, had to wait for room in upper stretch, and finished gamely up the inside for second behind a dominant winner who we'll see in today's 4th race. Chad Brown generally does better with maiden second time starters than he does on debut, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this one take a step forward. She's just going to be a much shorter price than last time. Brown's other runner Trango Tower (#1) returns from a long layoff after making a middle move before flattening out on debut. She did chase home future Grade 1 winner La Cara that day, so it was a strong race. She just needs to prove she's stepped forward since then. There are also a few interesting first time starters to consider. Gin's Beach Road (#5) sports some flashy workouts, but her pedigree leans a bit more towards turf and she looks that way to me. Mark Casse's debut runners often need a start anyway. Celestial Speed (#7) will generate some attention based on the fact that she worked in company with impressive 2-year-old debut winner Iron Orchard on June 19. She held her own with that filly but wasn't as quick away from the gate and goes out for a barn whose debut runners also sometimes need a start. My top pick is Syncoro (#3), who has a nice pedigree. Her dam Lovely Syn was a debut winner who went 4 for 4 in her brief career, and her best foal is multiple stakes winner Love in the Air. Whit Beckman has done very well with first time starters in dirt sprints, going 5 for 28 (18%, $4.26 ROI) since beginning his training career. I like the workouts this filly has posted at Keeneland, as she has looked best in company, including in that quick June 20 gate drill. I'm expecting a solid effort first time out, and she might be a fair price given the presence of those aforementioned rivals.

Fair Value:
#3 SYNCORO, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

The third race at this level on June 6 is the key common race to evaluate when handicapping this turf sprint. Works for Me got the job done with a good trip and starts as one of the favorites in the Harvey Pack on Friday. Antares (#7) finished second that day, making a strong late bid between horses after getting rated towards the back early. I don't love that he's never won on the turf, but I'm picking a horse on top who's in that same boat. Antares just figures to be a shorter price than last time off that last performance, and I still want to see him put those big races back to back. Final Verdict (#8) seems a little more trustworthy out of that June 6 affair. He had also run well behind the classy Works for Me two back when contesting the pace at 6 furlongs before just getting run down late. He didn't really step forward last time, but he was chasing wide on the turn in a race where the top two saved ground. Now he lands in a spot where he should be perched just off Boat's a Rockin (#2) early. That rival is a contender on his best form, but may need a start. Final Verdict maintained strong form through all of his New York turf starts and looks like the one to beat. The horse that intrigues me most from that June 6 race is Step Forward (#5), who finished farther back in 8th. That wasn't a particularly strong effort, and the fact that he was also 3-wide on the turn is hardly enough of an excuse. Yet he was making his first start off a lengthy layoff, and Mark Casse trainees tend to do better with a start under their belts. This horse tailed off at the end of last season, but he had run well in a couple of turf sprints last summer, finishing third in the Grade 2 Highlander and then running deceptively well in that July 28 turf sprint up here. He got completely steadied out at the start that day, and actually ran a nice race to get within 3 lengths of the leaders at the wire. He's another searching for his first win on turf, but he has handled the surface and now gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. I hardly love this horse, but could take a shot at the right price.

Fair Value:
#5 STEP FORWARD, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

There is no shortage of speed in this New York-bred allowance optional claimer. That could make for a difficult pace scenario for two of the favorites, I'm Wide Awake (#4) and What's Up Bro (#5). They also both must prove that they can be at their best going this 7-furlong distance. I'm Wide Awake has rarely gone this far in his career, though he did finish up his winning effort last time as if a little more distance wouldn't be an issue. He's now just stepping up into a much tougher spot as he makes his second start for the Norm Casse barn. I like What's Up Bro's overall form a little more, and he's exiting a deceptively strong race last time, from which a few have returned to register improved speed figures. I just don't love the subsequent layoff, and the other pace in here has to be a concern for a horse that doesn't seem to be at his best when he fails to make the lead. Jackson Heights (#8) put in an eye-catching rally from far back to beat a claiming field last time. I didn't think I'd ever see this horse win a race at 6 furlongs, but he proved that turning back into a spot with more pace was just what he needed. He's moving up in class here, but the 7 furlongs should be even more suitable to him, and he figures to get another good setup. My top pick is Russian Realm (#7), who returns from a layoff. The break isn't a concern for Danny Gargan, who generally has very good stats off layoffs, and this horse probably needed some time away after constant racing throughout 2024. His recent form looks inconsistent, but he's actually never been out of the money when they've run him one turn on dirt, and he's getting back into that kind of spot here. He ran a race that would beat this field two back with Katie Davis aboard, and he had no chance last time in a paceless race going too far. He appears to be training well and would offer value if he isn't favored.

Fair Value:
#7 RUSSIAN REALM, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10

The two horses exiting the Poker are arguably the strongest contenders in this G3 Kelso. Donegal Momentum (#4) led throughout to pull off the minor upset last time, but he was greatly aided by the early scratch of his main pace rival, which allowed him an easy lead. He may find himself in a similar situation this time, but he is stepping up to face a slightly deeper field than he defeated in that most recent start. I think he's turned into a nice turf horse, and these seem like the ideal conditions for him. I just expect him to go favored this time. Intellect (#2) arguably ran just as well, if not better, than the winner last time. No one else was able to make up ground from behind, and Intellect launched an eye-catching rally from last into second. Gmax got him running his final quarter in 22.21 seconds, a terrific closing split. The problem is that he seems to lack early speed, and he could be similarly pace compromised here if no one presses Donegal Momentum. I'll take a shot against these two with Think Big (#3) as he stretches out on turf for the first time. In a lot of ways, he's the biggest wild card in this field since he clearly has the talent to win at this level. I personally have some confidence that he's going to be just fine trying a mile. He handled 7 furlongs on dirt early in his career, which requires a similar amount of stamina to go a mile on turf. He obviously has improved a great deal since then, and he's run his best races when he can be placed a little bit closer to the early pace. Given the typically slower paces of route races, he should be able to take up a stalking position, and I believe he'll be a handful if able to produce his typical finishing kick off some moderate early splits.

Fair Value:
#3 THINK BIG, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 11

I'm not really against Nitrogen (#7), who has been awesome so far this year, suggesting that she might be the best 3-year-old filly in the country regardless of surface. I keep waiting for her workload to catch up to her, but she's actually improved with each successive start, now aiming for her 6th stakes win in a row. I'll be intrigued to see if her dominant Wonder Again victory over a sloppy dirt track gives the connections confidence to try the Alabama later in the season, but first she has to take down this Grade 1 on turf. I'm not too concerned about some extra distance for her, and the outside post position shouldn’t be too much of a detriment, especially with this race being run on the Mellon course with the rails out. She's going to be awfully tough for these to beat, but the price will be extremely short and I do think there are one or two intriguing alternatives. I couldn't quite get there with Warming (#1) as a top pick, but she's a horse that I definitely want to use in any exotic wagers. This is a big ask in just the second turf route of her career, but she's shown promise right from the start, and has gotten silly trips in both starts this season. She was unlucky to lose the Take the A Train, and then somehow won with a nearly impossible trip last time at Delaware. She's stepping way up in class, but arguably has the most upside of anyone in here. The horse I'll key as the potential upsetter is Totally Justified (#3). She looked like a work in progress last year, even after she earned a stakes victory over this course in the P. G. Johnson. She had some issues keeping a straight course in the Jessamine and Breeders' Cup, encountering traffic in the late stages of the latter race. Her return from a layoff in the Appalachian was disappointing, but she took a big step forward last time in the Regret. Though she was beaten by one of today's rivals, she ran the better race, chasing down Classic Q on the lead and opening up in mid-stretch before getting overhauled late. That pace was fast, including by TimeformUS Pace Figures up to 140, and she did well to hang on late. Her pace-upgraded 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts her nearly on par with Nitrogen, and she might have another step forward in her third off the layoff. There isn't much speed in here, and she should get first run on the favorite.

Fair Value:
#3 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED, at 9-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

Handicappers may default Miwa (#5) and her superior set of TimeformUS Speed Figures. Yet I'm not convinced that she really has much of an edge on this field. She was never a serious threat in either of those American turf starts, just picking up pieces over a boggy course at Keeneland before passing tiring rivals in the New York. It's unclear if she'll be more or less effective on firm going, but her lack of early speed could be a liability in this paceless affair. I also have some reservations about Youknownothing (#3), another to exit graded stakes company. She did finish second in the Bewitch, but was no match for the winner and just picking up pieces in a race where the turf conditions took their toll on many. The other Clement runner In Time (#6) interests me a bit more, since she's making her second start off a layoff and had a right to need her return going a marathon distance. She improved through racing last season, and possesses some of the best tactical speed of anyone in this field. My top pick is Florida shipper Fantasy Performer (#2). She arguably hasn't faced fields that are quite as tough as some of her rivals, but she does appear to be coming into this race in career form. She ran deceptively well with a tough trip two back, and then last time was launching an extremely wide run around the far turn before staying on admirably. She's never raced beyond 9 furlongs, but everything about her stride length and physicality suggests that more distance should suit her. She's getting a massive rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, and she may be a fair price in spite of that rider assignment.

Fair Value:
#2 FANTASY PERFORMER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

A few of the fillies who may take money in this allowance are getting a serious class test coming out of maiden wins against weaker company. That includes Competitive Threat (#1) and Leslie's Star (#4). Competitive Threat dropped in for a tag for the first time in her most recent start at Aqueduct, and the class relief was enough to put her in the winner's circle. Yet she wasn't the most convincing winner, and she'll have to run better than that 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure to beat this field. Leslie's Star has a similar profile and might have defeated an even weaker field. It will also be hard for even Irad Ortiz Jr. to work out a better trip than Junior Alvarado orchestrated for her last time. I'm more interested in horses coming from different directions. Downtown Channel (#3) has a right to get back on track as she returns from a layoff, since she achieved her only victory when returning from a similar freshening at Saratoga last year. She was inconsistent at the end of the season, but she got a pretty wide trip when she last competed in October. She makes her first start with Lasix for this return. I also think there are two intriguing Kentucky shippers in the field. One of those is Life Advice (#7), whose 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure from April makes her one of the fastest fillies in this field. She regressed last time, but she never settled when chasing a fast pace that fell apart. Now she's dropping back down to a slightly softer level, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she will be the main speed. My top pick is the other Churchill shipper, Aviso (#2). She's made all of her recent starts on dirt, and she's actually exiting the best performance of her career. However, a close examination of her early turf attempts suggests that she deserves another chance on this surface. She would have been competitive in that Jan. 4 turf race against a pretty strong maiden field, but she lost position on the far turn and then was ridden right into traffic inside the eighth pole, steadying badly at the end. In her next and most recent turf start in February, she was ridden conservatively to the quarter pole and then got steadied and basically eased when swerving to avoid a fallen rider. She's bred to be best on turf, being a half-sister to solid turf sprinter Independenceavenue and out of a dam who was a Group 1 turf winner in Brazil.

Fair Value:
#2 AVISO, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

I just can't quite trust Mighty Eriu (#1), who is cross-entered in a stakes at Ellis Park on Sunday. If she runs here, she figures to be a pretty short price as she gets some minor class relief. It's good placement, since she's only eligible to race here without the tag due to having broken her maiden in an optional maiden claimer. She has been a bit of a disappointment considering that she finished second in the G2 Queen Mary as a 2-year-old, and she was clearly no match for stakes company two and three back. Her last race was a step in the right direction, but I still felt she was supposed to win. She got an absolutely perfect trip, and beat herself by lugging in and hanging through the final furlong. The other filly with back class from her 2-year-old season, Will Not Be Swayed (#4), is also tough for me to trust. She ran some nice races last year, but she tailed off when she reappeared this spring. Watching those races, she's clearly smaller in stature than her competition, which begs the question about whether she peaked last year. I'm looking elsewhere. I wish I saw a little more pace in here for Proud Mary (#6), who was wide against a rail bias last time. She got some trips in Florida, but I worry that her best hope in this spot is a minor award. An intriguing new face is Dangherecomesshang (#3), who returns to turf for the first time since very early in her 2-year-old season. She won an off-the-turf event off the long layoff last time, traveling well to the quarter pole before hanging on late. She looks like more of a turf horse to me, and she's certainly bred for turf sprinting. I respect that Wesley Ward protects her as she tries winners. My top pick is Elegant (#7), who ships in from Kentucky. She's a confirmed turf sprinter, having run well in some tougher spots out in California before coming to the Midwest. She ran especially well off a layoff in April, setting a strong pace against a better field at Keeneland. She had an excuse when steadying into the far turn two back, and she bounced back on dirt last time. Now she returns to her preferred surface while getting some minor class relief. Jose Ortiz seems like a good fit for a filly who can be a little aggressive in the early stages.

Fair Value:
#7 ELEGANT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

This is a spot where I think we can beat both likely favorites. Brigade Commander (#10) owns the best turf form of anyone in this field, but it's been a long time since he's won on this surface. He has continued to perform well in his limited turf opportunities recently, and he was beaten by a rival with some quality at this level last time. However, now he's drawn in post 9 (Heaven's Champion is an early scratch) over an inner turf course that has been favoring inside paths so far this week. He seems destined for a wide trip in a race where this isn't much margin for error. Cognoscenti (#5) should also take money as he makes his first start for new connections following a visually impressive maiden victory. Yet he was beating a pretty weak field for the level last time and meets a stronger group here. I did like his form down in Florida, but he won't be much of a price moving into the Clement barn with Irad getting aboard. There are two alternatives who intrigue me. Desperate Proposal (#2) has only run on turf twice, and he really hasn't gotten an opportunity to perform at his best either time. He was a little rank early against a tough field at Keeneland two back. He dropped to this level last time, but got an absolutely ridiculous trip. He broke outward, putting himself out of position from the start. He then moved up while racing outside before angling back in on the turn, only to encounter traffic behind tiring runners. He finally extricated himself from trouble, but had too much ground to make up. He can do better here, but he needs to stay more engaged early. My top pick is Still a Soldier (#8), who is more of a wild card as he tries turf for the first time. He has some pedigree for turf, but it's not the kind of breeding you would blindly bet getting on the grass. It's rather his action and workouts that make me think this is the right spot for him. This horse has shown some talent on dirt, but has been a work in progress. He obviously needs to run better than his Finger Lakes maiden win to beat this field, but this is a barn that points for the Saratoga meet and I like the way he's been training for this return. His turf workout on June 20 suggested to me that he really liked the surface. I would like to see Ricardo Santana deliver an aggressive ride, since there isn't much pace in here, and he's on a horse who has more tactical speed than his form might suggest.

Fair Value:
#8 STILL A SOLDIER, at 10-1 or greater
#2 DESPERATE PROPOSAL, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

Amelia (#3) feels like the kind of horse that will take money as she returns from a layoff switching into the barn of Amelia Green. She obviously is best on turf, having done little running in her two dirt starts. That turf performance from last fall is better than the result indicates, since she was setting a decent pace and held on well until upper stretch before tiring. She's bred to be more of a sprinter, and is dropping into the right kind of spot as she gets back to the races. Miss Uproar (#10) has arguably run the best turf race of anyone in this field, finishing third against tougher company last time out. She's a little tough to take given her 0 for 15 career mark, but she's only made 6 starts on turf and makes some sense here. I have some interest in the horse to her outside, Gracie Girl (#11), as she makes her turf debut. King for a Day is unproven as a turf sire, but her second dam Very Funny has been a good turf influence, producing this dam's half-sisters Invading Humor and Distorted Beauty, both accomplished turf runners. She has a right to move up on this surface. My top pick is Fifi La Fume (#1), who makes just the second turf start of her career. She tried this surface last time, but that was going a mile and I'm not sure that distance is really what she wants. She traveled well most of the way, but was shuffled back early, had some traffic, and has to go wide in upper stretch. I felt like she handled the turf well, as her damside pedigree suggests she should. She had been improving through her prior dirt sprints, closing well behind a superior winner two back and encountering traffic three back. I think she might finally be landing in the right spot at the right time.

Fair Value:
#1 FIFI LA FUME, at 8-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

My Sweetheart (#4) has shown the most ability in the afternoon of anyone in this Schuylerville, but her lone experience came on turf. She was a commanding winner of that race, and the form was flattered when the runner-up came back to win her next start. While she is a daughter of good turf influence Flameaway, there is some dirt pedigree on her dam's side, and she's a very close relatively to her dam's half-brother Northern Flame (by the same sire), a talented dirt horse. Still, she's going to be a short price for a horse trying a new surface, and Mark Casse has poor statistics with last-out debut winners in general. I'm not a big fan of the other winner in the field Evolution (#1), who struggled with her lead changes in Florida and appears to be a precocious sort with some limitations. The other horses to consider are maidens, but the second time starters do have a right to move forward. Kingsolver (#2) goes out for Rudy Brisset, who is 15 for 44 (34%, $2.17 ROI) with second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. She might exit the toughest race of any of these, and contend for the win with any progression. George Weaver entered a pair of fillies, neither of which had ideal trips on debut. I don't love the field Simone (#6) exits, though she was running on at the end after getting steadied on the turn. My top pick is Miss Magical (#5), who appeared to outwork Simone when they were paired up in company on June 27. I also like her debut race more than that of her stablemate, since she chased home a Todd Pletcher firster that might have some quality. She got shuffled back from an inside draw early, but was staying on well late once tipped outside, looking very much like one that will relish a slight stretch-out to 6 furlongs. I think she's among the most likely winners, and I doubt she goes favored here.

Fair Value:
#5 MISS MAGICAL, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3

War Stride (#6) figures to be a clear-cut favorite in this second-level allowance optional claimer. This gelding didn't look like the type that would be competitive in a race at this level when he was competing in claiming races over the winter at Aqueduct. Yet he has clearly improved a great deal over the last several months, entering this race off the two best performances of his career. He was a convincing winner against first-level allowance competition two back, and then progressed further last time, finishing second to the classy Baby Yoda at a higher level than this. He drew the rail in both of those races and had to be used for early position. Now he gets a more favorable outside post position and is reunited with winning rider Flavien Prat. He's the horse to beat, but the one knock against him is that his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures don't give him much of an edge over a few of his key rivals in this race. Shadow Dragon (#4) and Magnolia Midnight (#5) will both attempt to turn back in distance after going a mile in most of their recent starts. The former is returning from a brief freshening, but he's been working consistently over the past two months so it doesn't appear that he had any major issues. He was content to settle for minor awards last year, but he's now won two of his last three starts and has gained a bit more tactical speed since the addition of blinkers. Magnolia Midnight could play out as the main speed, but he's usually more comfortable setting slower paces going longer than this. My top pick is Ridgewood Runner (#3), who figures to be the biggest price in this compact field. He's depicted in mid-pack on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, but he has more early speed than that forecast suggests. He hasn't gotten ideal trips in a few of his recent starts, getting squeezed back at the start or outrun early in some faster-paced affairs. Connections took the blinkers off last time and he again was outfooted early, but seemed to settle better on the turn before launching a strong rally into a fast pace. He has faced tougher fields than this in almost all of his recent starts, and now lands in a spot where he should have more of an opportunity to attain his preferred forward position. He won at this level as recently as February, and I don't think he's regressed since then as much as his recent results would indicate.

Fair Value:
#3 RIDGEWOOD RUNNER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

I found more reasons to knock horses than to endorse them in this maiden event where almost all still have something to prove. Dirand (#8) could go favored after showing some ability on debut at Monmouth. The winner of that race has some quality, so it's not as if he was facing a terrible field. This colt certainly is bred to have a future as a half-brother to BC Mile winner Uni. I prefer him to horses with more experience like Tom Collins (#7) or the returning Vintage Vino (#9), but I wouldn't want to take too short a price on him. Your Lordship (#6) is a little more convincing as he makes his U.S. debut. He kept decent company overseas, and was unlucky to lose over the all-weather at Southwell two back before finishing a decent third at Epsom last time. He's bred to excel over longer distances than this, so I wonder if that lies in his future, but he still fits well here. My top pick is Orgonite (#4), who feels like a horse that still has upside as he makes just the second turf start of his career. He was clearly just out for experience when he debuted on dirt, and he seemed to run an incomplete race when he got on turf last time. He was keen through the early stages, running up on heels into the first turn before settling. He then seemed to disengage when he hit the far turn, dropping back before staying on again through the late stages when asked for his best. He still earned a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure in a race dominated by the superior Asbury Park. I don't think there's anyone with that kind of talent in this field, and this son of excellent turf mare Hessonite can factor at a price with logical progression.

Fair Value:
#4 ORGONITE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this restricted maiden where almost everyone is making their debut. Nowucme Nowudont (#2) was scratched out of a dirt race last month after getting some mediocre workout reports. Lawyer Mason (#4) might have the best pedigree for turf, but I wonder if he'll need a start and potentially more ground. I have liked the workout videos for Minorinconvenience (#6), but he feels like one who could take money here. My top pick is the lone horse with experience, Mo Dodgy (#3). I like the progeny of Mo Town in turf sprints, where he wins with 14% of his starters. He actually took some money on debut, though Irad riding probably had a lot to do with that. Kevin Rice is 10 for 49 (20%, $3.48 ROI) with maiden second time starters, so it's easy to project improvement for this colt. He also moved like a horse that should take well to turf in that lone dirt start, and Jose Ortiz taking the mount suggests he's live here.

Fair Value:
#3 MO DODGY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don't have some strong case against Zulu Kingdom (#4), who appears to be a legitimate favorite in this Manila. I just didn't thought he would get bet like he was close to a sure thing in this field, and I can't say that I'm convinced his edge is as great as could be represented in the pools. Chad Brown doesn't appear to regard this horse with as much confidence as his form suggests should be the case, or he might have run him in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby even if the distance is slightly beyond his ideal range. He got the job done in the American Turf last time, but he worked out a great trip and was getting reeled in late. I was more impressed by his Columbia two back, where he held off today's rival Reagan's Wit (#5) despite getting a tougher trip in which he was dueling for the lead through fast fractions. Reagan's Wit did win a stakes at this distance at Pimlico last time, but he was beating a softer field in that spot and seemed to relish the softer going. I was somewhat disappointed by his losses in the Columbia and Transylvania and didn't want to take a short price on him. There are some prices that interest me. Maui Strong (#1) should benefit from the race flow, since he possesses some tactical speed and shoudl take up a good pocket position over an inner turf course that was kind to inside runners yesterday. I have some doubts about his overall ability, but I won't be surprised when he works his way into the superfecta. Flat to Da Mat (#12) initially looked like a horse that could pick up pieces into a fast pace, but I wonder if his connections will now look to be more aggressive after most of the speed has scratched out. He is putting blinkers on, and he hasn't been that far off the pace in his sprint races. I don't think it's fair to hold his lone turf route against him, since he has improved a great deal since then. My top pick is Capitol Hill (#8), who I believe to be the main rival to the favorite. He got a great trip in his turf debut at Tampa, but still finished that race off impressively while beating a pretty strong field for the level. Bill Mott ran him back in a first-level allowance at Keeneland where he got in off the AE list and was stuck in post 12. He unsurprisingly worked out a wide trip, going 3 to 4-wide on both turns, with no cover for much of his journey. Considering that disadvantage, he actually did well to finish fourth beaten just over 2 lengths. I don't care about his subsequent dirt start, and now he's getting back on the right surface while still underexposed.

Fair Value:
#8 CAPITOL HILL, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

I'll be interested to see how the public bets this race. I had a tough time pegging a price on Final Gambit (#6), who I ultimately made the lukewarm morning line favorite. After all, he is the fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, which carries a great deal of weight for many players, especially considering how strong the Derby appeared to be this year. It's also easy to excuse his subsequent effort in the Matt Winn, since that race never set up well for him. I get the thinking behind returning him to turf, since he improved so much on synthetic and ran deceptively well in his lone turf start on debut. However, Brad Cox doesn't have much success with this move. He is just 14 for 118 (12%, $0.70 ROI) going dirt to turf with non-maidens over 5 years, one of the worst stats you'll find for Cox. There also doesn't appear to be much speed in here, which won't suit his style. I think the two horses exiting the American Turf are the ones to beat. New Century (#4) should be the shorter price after making a visually impressive late run into third that day. He showed talent during his 2-year-old season, but he has to prove that he can be as effective stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. I'm less concerned about more ground for Test Score (#5), who finished just ahead of that rival in the American Turf. He's bred to get more distance, and his grinding style should suit this race well as long as Manny Franco allows him to use his tactical speed early. My top pick is the Euro shipper Luther (#3). I thought this colt showed ability during his 2-year-old season, finishing close to New Century in his second start before impressively winning a stakes at Haydock. He closed well behind subsequent G1 Prix du Jockey Club third-place finisher Detain in April, and then outran his odds in the French 2000 Guineas. He broke from post 15 of 16 and had to be used to get over into a more forward position than he usually takes up. He still stayed on well late to just miss against some talented European 3-year-olds. He then disappointed in the Prix du Jockey Club, but he again was too close to the pace from a wide draw, and didn't seem to handle the added distance. He possesses a good turn of foot when he's held up early, so he should be suited to American racing. I don't expect him to be that short a price going out for connections that aren't exactly household names.

Fair Value:
#3 LUTHER, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 11

This Harvey Pack looks totally wide open, as even the horses who may vie for favoritism still have something to prove. I view Works for Me (#6) as the horse to beat, and he proved he belongs at this level when he dead-heated for the victory in the Turf Sprint Championship last fall at Aqueduct. He's run well in both starts since returning from a layoff this year, but he has gotten great trips each time. The most encouraging thing about those races is that he appears to have regained the tactical speed that he lost last summer. Though I didn't think he ran any better than Felix (#7) when they met on May 4, as the Tom Morley runner was wider, pushed out by Works for Me in upper stretch, and still ran him down. Felix is lightly raced for a 6-year-old, but he's just now rounding back into top form after spending a good chunk of time on the sidelines. The distance is fine for him, and his tactical speed should ensure he works out a fair trip. There really isn't much pace signed on for a turf sprint, which is a major knock against Witty (#10), who does his best work when he can close from far back. It's just hard to envision him working out a winning trip here. That's a big reason why I want to bet on Bring Theband Home (#9). He doesn't always make use of his speed, but he is very quick when they want to send him away from the gate, as they did when he won here last August. He hasn't gotten an ideal trip since then, as he was of a bit slowly and chasing 3-wide off the layoff two back, and last time was intentionally rated behind a stablemate. I still thought he ran well using a style that isn't ideal for him. Now he's making his third start of the season, and is reunited with Javier Castellano, who has delivered aggressive rides aboard him in the past.

Fair Value:
#9 BRING THEBAND HOME, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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RACE 7

This starter allowance with a $50,000 claiming option going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf might be the most competitive race on the entire Thursday card. There isn't a clear favorite among the 9 runners entered for grass, though Chess Master (#3) seems like one of the more logical contenders. This 9-year-old has achieved 15 career victories in turf sprints and has run well in all 3 attempts over this distance at Saratoga in the last two seasons. His 2025 form has been solid, achieving a five-furlong win at Gulfstream before running respectably in a race rained off the turf at the Spa last month. His tactical speed should put him in an advantageous stalking position. Maya Prince (#6) is one of several competing for the $50,000 optional claiming tag, as he drops in class out of a series of tougher races dating back to last summer. He was mildly overmatched in his lone start of the season when unable to close in a speed-dominated stakes at Laurel. His form tailed off at the end of last year, but he's getting logical class relief and should contend here with any progression second off the layoff. Scheduling Dude (#9) is shown leading on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, but he's never run on turf before. That should put Heaven Street (#4) either on the lead or sitting right on top of a moderate early pace. It's been a while since this 6-year-old has run a race that makes him competitive at this level, but there are some signs that he's cycling back up to a stronger performance. He once was capable of producing form that would beat this field, such as when he won a high-level allowance race going this distance at Keeneland in October of 2023. He's tailed off since then, but he had a valid excuse when he completely botched a start last September. He went to the sidelines soon after, but he now returns in the barn of Ilkay Kantarmaci, who has rejuvenated several older claimers in New York this year. Heaven Street actually put in the best dirt effort of his career off the layoff two back when displaying excellent early speed before fading, earning a competitive 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure on a surface he's never liked. That signals that he can still run, and I like that he's ambitiously placed once again as he gets back on turf.

Fair Value:
#4 HEAVEN STREET, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's never a surprise when Chad Brown holds a strong hand in a stakes for turf females, and that's certainly true of the Wild Applause, a race he has won in 4 of its last 5 editions. He has the two likely favorites among this three contenders, though pace could be key to the chances of all of them. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Classic Q (#5) will be all alone on the lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. It doesn't sound like Mark Casse is too pleased about that, since he told Mike Welsch that he thinks this filly runs best from off the pace. Yet I don't think it's fair to hold her loss in the Regret against her, since she just ran off on the front end, posting TimeformUS Pace Figures exceeding 140 for her the first two calls. She was never going to sustain that pace, and she's probably best going shorter anyway. She's dangerous here if Jose Ortiz can get her to settle up front. It's hard to know exactly who could press her. Among the Chad Brown trio, Lavender Disaster (#7) may possess the most natural tactical speed. She's been a little keen in the early stages even she's won, and she's coming off a solid victory against older foes. She had a major excuse in her lone loss in the Miss Grillo, and will be tough with any progression second off the layoff. The Brown runner that I'm least optimistic about is Play With Fire (#6), a new acquisition for LSU Stables. She made an impressive swooping move to win the Hilltop, but that came over a course that was closer to yielding than firm. Chad does well with new acquisitions like this, but she's unlikely to get the same setup as last time and her prior form doesn't convince me. My top pick is Midway Memories (#4), who figures to be the biggest price of the Brown brigade. She wasn't beating much of a field when she broke her maiden last time, but she closed strongly into a moderate pace, extending her stride impressively through the final eighth of a mile. I was actually more impressed by her debut effort at Tampa where she nearly got the job done against a tougher field while closing into a very slow pace. This half-sister to Grade 1 winner Zandon has more tactical speed than her form might suggest, and comes into this with plenty of upside. She's been searching for a spot to run, scratched out of the Penn Oaks and Boiling Springs last week, but figures to be a better price here.

Fair Value:
#4 MIDWAY MEMORIES, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10

Of the fillies exiting the June 5 race at this level, La Salvadorena (#3) has to be considered the strongest contender. She barely beat two of today's rivals across the wire, finishing second to a runaway longshot winner. Yet she had by far the toughest trip of those horses. She was off a bit slowly and then forced to go wide while attempting to make up ground. She was legitimately 3 to 4-wide all the way around the far turn, and spun wider into the lane. She had every right to flatten out, but kept trying through the wire in a determined effort. That was her return from a layoff, and she figures to be tough to beat if she steps forward with that start under her belt. As for the others out of that race, Thiene (#8) is also second off a layoff here, but she got an absolutely perfect trip last time. Tales of the Heart (#10) was the favorite that day, but she really had no excuse after saving ground in the two-path and tipping out in the lane, only to flatten out late. My top pick is You Decide (#6), who also returns from a layoff. However, she's making her 3-year-old debut, so she should have more upside than those returning as older horses. She ran a pretty fast race when she finally got on turf last October at Santa Anita, winning decisively by over 5 lengths. Her 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure may not seem that impressive, but that number was actually downgraded slightly (hence the 'p' notation) because it came up almost too fast for the level. Runbacks from the race have been strong, and she's certainly bred to be a turf sprinter. Her worktab off the long break seems light, but Tom Proctor is 7 for 15 (47%, $3.69 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on turf over 5 years so I won't get too concerned about it. There's some speed in here, but none will be as quick as her if she builds on her two-year-old effort.

Fair Value:
#6 YOU DECIDE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 11

The scratch of Opera de Ravel obviously depresses the price on everyone else and also removes a likely winner from the race. I was not thrilled with the horses exiting the maiden race won by Curlin's Angel, though Key Actress (#5) might have some upside if she can settle better early in this spot. Bint Al Dandy (#2) is mildly interesting after getting scratched when she flipped in the gate here on June 5. She had worked well into that start, and was 4-1 at the time of her acting up in the gate. I just wonder if she really wants to go this far off the long layoff, and she could take money based on workouts. My top pick is Cliffs (#8), who tries turf for the first time. She finished a strong third with a wide trip in a very live race, from which 4 horses have won their next starts with strong speed figures. At first glance, it seems a little surprising that she's switching to turf since she ran so well in that dirt debut, but she actually has a deceptively strong turf pedigree. Omaha Beach gets nearly 14% turf winners, and of the dam's 3 winning siblings, 2 won on turf including Mind Mapping, who was multiple stakes-placed on turf in France. This is also the female family of Grade 1 turf winners War of Will and Pathfork. In a race where many still have to prove their quality, this filly should be a handful if she takes to the surface as well as her pedigree suggests.

Fair Value:
#8 CLIFFS, at 5-2 or greater