Picks & Plays for Thursday, May 2
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 8: 10 - 1 - 7 - 1A - 4
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Rotknee (#1) is clearly the most accomplished member of this Affirmed Success field, having won his last 7 races against New York-bred company including 5 stakes events. Perhaps this drop in class is all he will need to rebound after he disappointed against Grade 3 foes in the Tom Fool last time. He got involved in a contested pace and threw in the towel through the stretch over a sloppy track. I can’t use the track condition as an excuse since he’s run well over wet surfaces before. One concern I have is that he’s been competing with regularity for over a year at this point, and it’s possible that he’s just tailing off a bit. He also drew inside of his main pace rival, which could force Manny Franco to get aggressive, or potentially take back if the horse doesn’t break alertly. I have never been the biggest fan of Excellent Timing (#5), who possesses a great deal of speed but has trouble carrying it all the way more often than not. However, I think he’s come back with a couple of solid efforts since returning from a layoff this year. He had a right to get leg-weary off the layoff two back when beaten by a good horse in Be the Boss. Then last time he just went way too fast up front, carving out some quick splits before fading to third behind a pair of rivals who would be vying for favoritism in a spot like this. Now he’s drawn perfectly outside Rotknee, allowing Dylan Davis to dictate terms to that foe. The TimeformUS Pace Projector even suggests he’s a little quicker early, in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. The horse has to prove he belongs at this level, but he’s going out for a dangerous barn and has TimeformUS Speed Figure that suggest he’s among the most talented horses in here. If the race comes apart Donegal Surges (#2) and Sheriff Bianco (#3) are the two most logical alternatives. I just think Donegal Surges has some things to prove from a class and speed figure standpoint as he moves up out of the allowance ranks. Sheriff Bianco has certainly run races in the past that could beat this field, but he tends to settle for minor awards and might need a start off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#5 EXCELLENT TIMING, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 6
Bourbon Calling (#4) is the horse to beat as he drops slightly in class second off the trainer switch to Mertkan Kantarmaci. He ran well getting into that new barn last time, but he also got a very favorable trip. He rode the rail while making his move to lead in upper stretch on a day when the inside paths were favorable. That said, he was run down late by a horse who actually snuck up inside of him late, and that rival Colloquy came right back to just miss while perhaps running the best race in defeat here last week. This gelding has plenty of back class and will be tough to beat if he shows up with one of his good races. His main rival is Gut Feeling (#7), who moves up in class after exiting a victory at the $16k level. He competed on Wood Memorial day when the rail also seemed to be a mild advantage early in the card, and he was inside throughout. Now he’s claimed away from the Kantarmaci barn for Orlando Noda, who doesn’t have the best statistics with this move. Six Percent (#3) certainly has the back class to win a race like this, but he’s been a little disappointing in both runs since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. You can make an excuse for him last time when he was trying 11 furlongs and compromised by a speed-favoring surface. The drop and turnback make him a little interesting. My top pick is Holdtheflight (#6). He won at this level two back going the same one-turn mile, beating what might have been a deeper field than he encounters here. Prior to that he had faced tougher company and the class relief really seemed to wake him up. He didn’t run well off the claim for Chad Summers last time, but he was turning back to a sprint on a day when speed was virtually unbeatable. Now he’s stretching back out to the right distance, dropping back to an appropriate level.
Fair Value:
#6 HOLDTHEFLIGHT, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
Saint Gaudens (#6) figures to be the clear-cut favorite in this N1X allowance even though he’s a 3-year-old stepping up against a field of older horses. He had a legitimate excuse on debut when getting a wide trip against a strong rail bias, and subsequently showed what kind of talent he possesses easily beating a maiden field by over 6 lengths. Given how visually impressive he was in that victory, his next start was a little disappointing. He ran a similar speed figure, but still faded to fourth as the even-money favorite. Perhaps he was a little overrated that day against a strong field, and now he’s meeting a group of older rivals who don’t have as much upside. His two recent triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures make him the fastest horse in here, but you do have to swallow a short price on him. Battleoflexington (#5) looks like the main rival as he makes his second start off the layoff. Something obviously went wrong last summer as he went the sidelines following the best effort of his career, when breaking his maiden as easily as you’ll ever see in the slop, truly geared down through the last furlong. His connections picked out an ambitious spot for him to make his return at Keeneland, and he actually ran very well, closing from far back to get up for third going a distance that may be a bit short for him. The concern is that both of those career-best efforts came over sloppy, sealed tracks, and he looks like the kind of horse that would appreciate that going. We’ll see if he can be as effective over a fast track on Thursday. My top pick is Messi the Magician (#7). It’s hard to completely trust this horse, since his that starter allowance race he ran two back hasn’t aged very well, with horses coming back to regress. Yet I also think his last race isn’t as bad as it seems, since he found himself chasing a fast pace set by a horse who took a huge step forward to win. Stretching out to a mile might seem counterintuitive, but he tends to have trouble keeping up with faster paces going shorter, and he might be able to get into a better rhythm at this distance, especially breaking from an outside post. The progeny of Gormley often look more like sprinters physically, as this one does, but can still handle longer distances.
Fair Value:
#7 MESSI THE MAGICIAN, at 6-1 or greater