Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 28
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 8: 1 - 10 - 7 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 1 - 8 - 2
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
There is little doubt that Mama’s Dream (#6) will beat this field if he shows up with his best effort, but he’s a little tough to trust at a very short price. We have seen him at his best on just one occasion, when he finished second going a mile at the $40k maiden claiming level two back. That 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure is simply faster than what his rivals are capable of producing. However, he was unable to replicate that form against tougher last time, fading badly in the late stages. He is a horse who struggled without Lasix early in his career, and it’s fair to wonder if he’s one who has some kind of bleeding or breathing issue given the way he tends to fall apart late in his races. I’m just reticent to take a very short price on a horse with that attribute, especially since he does figure to get some early pressure from Alpha Sonny (#4). It’s a little tough to take this 0 for 9 maiden as an alternative, but he did run a career-best race two back, and followed it up with another decent effort last time, where he contested a fast pace and got bumped before fading late. Yet I’m most interested in another horse out of that Apr. 11 race. Qorokwe (#3) got a very conservative ride from Eric Cancel on that occasion, immediately reined in to race at the back of the pack soon after the start. He’s a horse who has broke slowly in the past, so it was strange that Cancel took him so far back even when he broke more professionally last time. He actually made a mild move past some rivals into the lane before flattening out. He put forth that one big effort on Feb. 24 and has regressed since, but I think he’s a little better than he looks on paper and he should be finishing best of all if the favorite comes back to the field.
Fair Value:
#3 QOROKWE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
I respect the talent of both likely favorites in this optional claimer, but I don’t really want to bet either one at short prices. Bendoog (#1) obviously showed quality overseas, placing in multiple stakes in Dubai before running respectably in last year’s Dubai World Cup. He was pretty disappointing when he first showed up in the U.S. for Bill Mott last fall, losing at 1-2 while lugging in through the stretch and flattened out late. He got some more time off and returned earlier this month with a much better performance. He sat farther off the pace and launched a powerful run to lead at mid-stretch. He still had trouble putting the race away late, but the runner-up is a nice horse and he got a strong 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. My issue is that he’s now stretching out to 9 furlongs, and his overseas form suggested that shorter might actually be better for him. Main rival Leading Contender (#2) is another who has been popular with the bettors lately. He’s lost at extremely short prices in his last couple of starts at this level. He did have a mild excuse two back when never inside over a rail-biased surface, but I was hoping to see more from him last time when he just lacked late punch after getting a good trip. Rocco Strong (#7) didn’t finish that far behind him on Mar. 1, and it’s easy to excuse his last effort when stepping up against stakes company in the Excelsior. Now he’s back at the right level where he can again race on Lasix. It’s unclear if he’s quite as talented as the aforementioned pair, but he does figure to be a more palatable price. My top pick is Harvard (#5). There was a time when this guy would have been among the favorites in a spot like this. He looked so promising early in his career, winning an allowance going this distance with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in 2021. However, a lot of time has passed since then, and he was off for the better part of two years before returning this winter. He found 6 1/2 furlongs to be too short coming off the layoff, and he probably needed that start anyway. He fared better on the slight class drop last time. He was keen racing behind rivals along the inside and got mildly shuffled back on the far turn before staying on well late. It’s interesting that Jacobson now moves him back up into a protected spot, since he is 9 for 36 (25%, $3.50 ROI) going from claiming to allowance races on dirt at NYRA over 5 years. Distance isn’t supposed to be an issue, and he might be cycling back up to a better effort.
Fair Value:
#5 HARVARD, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 4
The scratch of likely favorite Life Changer really opens this race up, but also reduces the price on the horse I wanted to bet. Little Luca (#2) might not go favored as he comes off a blowout victory against allowance horses last time. Yet that was a weak field for the level and he got clear early. He figures to encounter a bit more speed this time. The horse I want to play against is M B's Munning (#7), who got a decent speed figure last time. However, that race hasn't aged particularly well, and I expect him to regress here. My top pick is Writer’s Regret (#3). This horse had gotten back into top form for Ralph D’Alessandro this winter, overcoming a rail bias to win impressively on Feb. 4 before holding his own against a much tougher state-bred allowance field last time. Now he’s been claimed by new trainer Owen Garber, who hasn’t yet had success with limited starters. Yet he's worked this horse aggressively, including two recent gate drills. He has picked out an appropriate spot for him to try open company, and I wonder if he’s going to get an aggressive ride from the inside. He’s drawn well outside of main speed Little Luca, and tends to do his best running when he’s involved mid-race. I’ve been a longtime fan of this horse, because he tends to outrun his odds and should be a square price once again.
Fair Value:
#3 WRITER'S REGRET, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
This Memories of Silver centers around Sweet Rebecca (#2), who was extremely impressive winning her debut at Gulfstream in early March. She got checked back at the start, was a little wide into the clubhouse turn before settling, and then launched a terrific stretch rally to sail past the leaders while under mild encouragement late. The 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure doesn’t really do the performance justice. She is bred to be a good one, as a full-sister to multiple graded stakes winning turfer Sweet Melania, and she lived up to that pedigree on debut. Since then she’s been privately purchased and transferred to Chad Brown, who is 5 for 16 (31%, $2.38 ROI) first off a trainer switch in turf stakes races over 5 years. If she builds on her debut at all, she is going to be very tough for this field to beat. I much prefer her to Brown’s other horse Miss Mottley (#4), who beat a decent field on debut but got a very good trip in doing so. Curlin’s Girl (#1) is another coming off a maiden victory, albeit in her fifth career start. Though she won on synthetic last time, I liked both of her prior turf efforts and think she may be slightly better than her recent speed figures indicate. My top pick is Living Magic (#5). She’s more experienced than the rest, but she showed quality on turf as a 2-year-old, winning the Chelsey Flower over this course in an upset. There was nothing fluky about that performance as she stalked the pace, had some work to do in the lane, and found another gear to rally to victory. Ozara, who was second, has since come back to win stakes while running improved speed figures over the winter. Living Magic has run twice this year, losing once on synthetic in a race dominated up front. She got back on turf last time in the Appalachian against a deeper field than this, but the trip didn’t work out at all. She got steadied back when trying to get position into the clubhouse turn, and then got totally stopped in traffic in upper stretch before altering course to pass tired rivals late. She’s clearly better than that, and I expect her to get a much more aggressive ride this time switching to Kendrick Carmouche.
Fair Value:
#5 LIVING MAGIC, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
Notah (#2) has to be considered the horse to beat based on his recent efforts at this level. He hasn’t gotten the job done since that $40k claiming win in January, but he’s run well in all of his subsequent starts. He was perhaps mildly disappointing as the favorite last time, but he broke through the gate prior to the start and may not have been at his best. He will be tough for this group to handle if he returns to his Mar. 9 form, where he was a strong second to Mandatory, who came right back to win again with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The only real knock against him is that he wants to be forwardly placed and there is other speed drawn to his outside. Main rival Clubhouse (#6) was disappointing as the odds-on favorite last time, but the trip didn’t really work out. He conceded the early lead to the eventual winner, who got away with a slow pace up front. This colt got too keen in behind rivals and was never fully clear when trying to come up the inside in the lane. He was in great form prior to that, but not running as fast as the favorite. Leonids (#1) is an interesting new face coming off the layoff making his first start for Linda Rice. He has shown quality on occasion, but he’s another who could be negatively affected by an inside draw. With so much speed in this race, I found myself looking for a horse who could rally. The only viable option that fits that bill appears to be Kant Beat the Rock (#9). This horse is obviously tough to trust given his lack of consistency, but he does pop up with the occasional race that would give him a big chance against this field. Perhaps he just didn’t want to go a mile last time, so this slight turnback may suit him. He didn’t finish that far behind main rival Notah when they met two back. He draws favorably outside and it’s encouraging that there’s no drop in class out of the last race for Jacobson. I just thought he would get the right trip and he is good enough to challenge the favorite on his best day.
Fair Value:
#9 KANT BEAT THE ROCK, at 4-1 or greater